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Showing posts with label Blogosphere. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blogosphere. Show all posts

Jun 3, 2018

A Rock Designated ZLAF9B2(now 2018 LA) Social Media and Fireball Reports

On  2018-06-02 Richard A. Kowalski, with the Catalina Sky Survey reported observations of a "new" object, given  the observ3er-assigned temporary designation "ZLAF9B2", to  Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.  It was posted to the NEOCP(NEO Confirmation Page) making the observations available to asteroid and comet  researcher around the world.   The data was analyzed and posted JPL's Scout: NEOCP Hazard Assessment, independently analyzed and posted to Bill Gray's  Current NEOCP summary page. Then emails  to mailing list post to social madia started going out. It was know to be small at the start.

When wroke up on 2018-06-02 I check iTelescope.net and saw their facility in Siding Spring Observatory, AU was clouded out than I went out to eat breakfast.  When got back just to see what I would observe if I could observe, I check the NEOCP and saw that ZLAF9B2 was "bright",  and  then  check "The Minor Planet Mailing List {MPML}" Some of the asteroid and comet researchers where talking.  The Bill Gray sent and a number of  carefully worded emails to email list  stating ZLAF9B2 should be a "Priority Target".
 
One of the programs available to asteroid and comet researchers is Find_Orb it is useful for calculating approximate ephemeris, determining approximate orbits, residuals,  generating virtual asteroids, virtual impactors, predicting impact locations, and many other things.  It should be noted  IF one uses wrong setting one get a totally wrong solution. One things Find_Orb can be use for is generating a "asteroid risk corridor" with the help of Guide 9.1. This should be done with care because of uncertainties in  observations how one sets the over-observing parameters as well with other setting can the effect the results.  Bill Gray posted post a risk corridor for ZLAF9B2 and I thought I would give it a try. I had Find_Orb generated  virtual asteroids and virtual impactors using a  monte carlo process. 


Here is my TEST with Find_Orb using a monte carlo process see the files here

Here is my TEST with Find_Orb using a monte carlo process see the files here
Before I share my results ZLAF9B2(now 2018 LA)  "impacted" the Earth over southern Africa creating a Fireball. around 2018-06-02 16:45 UT and posts about impact started making.  After the impact two (pre-impact) follow up observations from ATLAS-MLO(Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System ---Mauna Loa) were posted to  the NEOCP(NEO Confirmation Page)  Then I did another  monte carlo process with the newly added ATLAS observations.

Test with the newly added ATLAS observations with Find_Orb
 using a monte carlo process see the files here
On 2018-06-04  the Minor Planet Center issues MPEC 2018-L04 : 2018 LA  Stating
"that the objectreached 50-km height above the Earth's surface around 16:51 UTC over southern Africa."

Timeline of SOME of the Post to Social Media














May 21, 2018

A Scale Model of the Earth if the Earth was the Size of a Basketball as of 2018-05-20



A Scale Model of the Earth if the Earth was the Size of a Basketball - Radius 12.0275 CM(4.73523622 inches)


Top of the Troposphere--0.038cm (0.015inches) 0.001 Ft
Top of the Stratosphere--0.113cm (0.045inches) 0.004 Ft
Top of the mesosphere--0.227cm (0.089inches) 0.007 Ft
STS-1(Perigee)--0.453cm (0.178inches) 0.015 Ft
STS-1(apogee)--0.474cm (0.187inches) 0.016 Ft
ISS(Perigee)--0.757cm (0.298inches) 0.025 Ft
ISS(apogee)--0.770cm (0.303inches) 0.025 Ft
Top of the Thermosphere--1.133cm (0.446inches) 0.037 Ft



The 50  closest  observed  NEO Earth close approaches as of  2018-05-20


01. The 2011-Feb-04 fly by of 2011 CQ1--10.347cm (4.074inches) 0.339 Ft
02. The 2008-Oct-09 fly by of 2008 TS26--11.816cm (4.652inches) 0.388 Ft
03. The 2004-Mar-31 fly by of 2004 FU162--12.351cm (4.862inches) 0.405 Ft
04. The 2016-Feb-25 fly by of 2016 DY30--14.978cm (5.897inches) 0.491 Ft
05. The 2017-Apr-04 fly by of 2017 GM--18.681cm (7.355inches) 0.613 Ft
06. The 2017-Oct-20 fly by of 2017 UJ2--21.756cm (8.565inches) 0.714 Ft
07. The 2011-Jun-27 fly by of 2011 MD--23.184cm (9.127inches) 0.761 Ft
08. The 2014-Jun-03 fly by of 2014 LY21--25.810cm (10.161inches) 0.847 Ft
09. The 2009-Nov-06 fly by of 2009 VA--26.590cm (10.469inches) 0.872 Ft
10. The 2012-May-29 fly by of 2012 KT42--27.263cm (10.734inches) 0.894 Ft
11. The 2017-Mar-02 fly by of 2017 EA--27.420cm (10.795inches) 0.900 Ft
12. The 2016-Sep-11 fly by of 2016 RN41--32.749cm (12.893inches) 1.074 Ft
13. The 2015-Sep-22 fly by of 2015 SK7--38.208cm (15.043inches) 1.254 Ft
14. The 2016-Jan-12 fly by of 2016 AH164--38.293cm (15.076inches) 1.256 Ft
15. The 2013-Dec-23 fly by of 2013 YB--39.225cm (15.443inches) 1.287 Ft
16. The 2017-Nov-26 fly by of 2017 WE30--44.815cm (17.644inches) 1.470 Ft
17. The 2016-Mar-11 fly by of 2016 EF195--47.677cm (18.771inches) 1.564 Ft
18. The 2008-Oct-20 fly by of 2008 US--50.052cm (19.705inches) 1.642 Ft
19. The 2004-Dec-19 fly by of 2004 YD5--51.949cm (20.452inches) 1.704 Ft
20. The 2013-Feb-15 fly by of 367943 Duende (2012 DA14)--52.259cm (20.574inches) 1.715 Ft
21. The 2015-Nov-15 fly by of 2015 VY105--53.303cm (20.985inches) 1.749 Ft
22. The 2016-Jan-14 fly by of 2016 AN164--57.900cm (22.795inches) 1.900 Ft
23. The 2010-Nov-17 fly by of 2010 WA--61.321cm (24.142inches) 2.012 Ft
24. The 2018-Jan-18 fly by of 2018 BD--61.859cm (24.354inches) 2.030 Ft
25. The 2015-Feb-17 fly by of 2015 DD1--62.075cm (24.439inches) 2.037 Ft
26. The 2014-Sep-07 fly by of 2014 RC--63.313cm (24.927inches) 2.077 Ft
27. The 2011-Feb-06 fly by of 2011 CF22--63.839cm (25.134inches) 2.094 Ft
28. The 2016-Sep-07 fly by of 2016 RB1--64.398cm (25.354inches) 2.113 Ft



Geosynchronous orbit--67.559cm (26.598inches) 2.216 Ft



29. The 2008-Nov-03 fly by of 2008 VM--75.248cm (29.625inches) 2.469 Ft
30. The 2004-Mar-18 fly by of 2004 FH--80.665cm (31.758inches) 2.646 Ft
31. The 2017-Oct-12 fly by of 2012 TC4--82.650cm (32.540inches) 2.712 Ft
32. The 2010-Oct-12 fly by of 2010 TD54--85.742cm (33.757inches) 2.813 Ft
33. The 2017-Jan-30 fly by of 2017 BH30--85.850cm (33.799inches) 2.817 Ft
34. The 2010-Nov-30 fly by of 2010 XB--87.847cm (34.586inches) 2.882 Ft
35. The 2013-Apr-18 fly by of 2013 HT25--89.662cm (35.300inches) 2.942 Ft
36. The 2017-May-04 fly by of 2017 JB2--93.008cm (36.617inches) 3.051 Ft
37. The 2014-Aug-31 fly by of 2014 RA--95.026cm (37.412inches) 3.118 Ft
38. The 2016-Apr-04 fly by of 2016 GN134--95.974cm (37.785inches) 3.149 Ft
39. The 2012-May-28 fly by of 2012 KP24--96.122cm (37.843inches) 3.154 Ft
40. The 2015-Apr-21 fly by of 2015 HD1--99.566cm (39.199inches) 3.267 Ft
41. The 2017-Oct-28 fly by of 2017 UL6--100.460cm (39.551inches) 3.296 Ft
42. The 2014-Mar-06 fly by of 2014 EC--104.224cm (41.033inches) 3.419 Ft
43. The 2009-Feb-27 fly by of 2009 EJ1--104.330cm (41.075inches) 3.423 Ft
44. The 2017-Aug-14 fly by of 2017 QP1--106.229cm (41.823inches) 3.485 Ft
45. The 2017-Mar-20 fly by of 2017 FN1--107.355cm (42.266inches) 3.522 Ft
46. The 2012-Mar-26 fly by of 2012 FS35--109.577cm (43.140inches) 3.595 Ft
47. The 2012-Jan-27 fly by of 2012 BX34--111.432cm (43.871inches) 3.656 Ft
48. The 2008-Mar-10 fly by of 2008 EF32--112.584cm (44.324inches) 3.694 Ft
49. The 2009-Oct-01 fly by of 2009 TB--119.071cm (46.878inches) 3.907 Ft
50. The 2007-Oct-17 fly by of 2007 UN12--119.600cm (47.087inches) 3.924 Ft


Light-second. 566.000cm (222.820inches) 18.568 Ft
Lunar distance (perigee)--673.000cm (265.000inches) 22.095 Ft
Lunar distance--714.000cm (281.000inches) 23.414 Ft
Lunar distance (apogee)--766.000cm (302.000inches) 25.128 Ft
Light-minute--34000.000cm (13400.000inches) 1114.101 Ft

Moon Equatorial radius--3.280cm (1.292inches) 0.108 Ft
Moon Equatorial radius Diameter--6.560cm (2.584inches) 0.215 Ft
Moon Equatorial  Circumference--20.600cm (8.117inches) 0.676 Ft

Earth radius--12.000cm (4.735inches) 0.395 Ft
Earth (Equatorial) diameter--24.100cm (9.470inches) 0.789 Ft
Earth (Equatorial) Circumference--75.600cm (29.752inches) 2.479 Ft


See the spreadsheet  The 50 closest observed NEO Earth close approaches as of 2018-05-20.xlsx






Oct 11, 2017

The Flyby By a "Astronomical Yard" of 2012 TC4


On 2017 October 12, the asteroid 2012 TC4 will flyby the Earth. This flyby has received a great deal of coverage in the media. When comes to media coverage of any asteroid flybys one of the most overused expressions is "close shave." Anyone who ever had to shave for work knows what a close shave is and what one is not. By comparing the solar system to the known universe, Pluto would be a "close shave" astronomically speaking. However, the subject at hand is the flyby of the Earth by an asteroid, therefor the Earth may serve a useful point of comparison.

If one wishes to simplify the matter, one could create a scale model of the Earth by way of a spreadsheet. If, one uses a ball with a diameter of 29.21 cm (11.5 inches) [this happen to be same as the as the length of a football ball(American)] to represent the Earth:

  • A CM would be 436.2204724 KM, an inch would be 1108 KM.
  • The International Space Station would be 9.2 mm away.
  • Geosynchronous orbit would be 820.4 mm, 0.8204 m, or 0.8972 yards
  • 2012 TC4 Nominal Distance(JPL)[2017-Oct-10] would be 1003.6 mm, 1.0036 m, or 1.0976 yards
  • Light-second would be 6872.5 mm, 6.8725 m, or 7.5159 yards
  • Lunar distance would be 8666.1 mm, 8.6661 m, or 9.4773 yards.
It should be noted since the start of The 2012 TC4 Observing Campaign the orbital uncertainty has been dramatically reduced. This many of made much of media coverage in the blogosphere out of date.
Useful Links:

Oct 8, 2017

The Asteroid 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-07

The Asteroid 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-07 from Siding Spring Observatory, Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia (MPC Code Q62) useing  iTelescope.net's (TEL T30 0.50-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD + f/4.5 focal reducer)

Useful Links:

Oct 7, 2017

The Asteroid 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-06

The NEO 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-06 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain (MPC I89) a stack of 45-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (TEL T07 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
(C) Steven M. Tilley
The NEO 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-06 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain (MPC I89) a stack of 15-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (TEL T07 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
(C) Steven M. Tilley
The NEO 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-06 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain (MPC I89) a stack of 15-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (TEL T07 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
(C) Steven M. Tilley
The NEO 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-06 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain (MPC I89) a stack of 15-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (TEL T07 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
(C) Steven M. Tilley
Useful Links:

Oct 2, 2017

The Asteroid 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-01

 

The NEO 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-01 from
Sierra Remote Observatory. Auberry California USA (MPC U69)
a stack of 34-120 Second Luminance BIN2 Images
taken with iTelescope.net's
(TEL T24 0.61-m f/6.5 reflector + CCD)
(C) Steven M. Tilley
The NEO 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-01 from
Sierra Remote Observatory. Auberry California USA (MPC U69)
a stack of 15-120 Second Luminance BIN2 Images
taken with iTelescope.net's
(TEL T24 0.61-m f/6.5 reflector + CCD)
(C) Steven M. Tilley
 
The NEO 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-01 from
Sierra Remote Observatory. Auberry California USA (MPC U69)
a stack of 15-120 Second Luminance BIN2 Images
taken with iTelescope.net's
(TEL T24 0.61-m f/6.5 reflector + CCD)
(C) Steven M. Tilley
The NEO 2012 TC4 on 2017-10-01 from
Sierra Remote Observatory. Auberry California USA (MPC U69)
a stack of 15-120 Second Luminance BIN2 Images
taken with iTelescope.net's
(TEL T24 0.61-m f/6.5 reflector + CCD)
(C) Steven M. Tilley
 Background
(as of 2017-10-01)

  •  Object: 2012 TC4
  • Orbit Type: Apollo [NEO]
  • Approximate Diameter: 12m- 27 m  (39.3701 feet to 88.5827  feet)(Absolute Magnitude: H= 26.7)
  • On the Sentry Risk Table:  Yes 
    •  NOTE this is NOT a prediction of an impact but rather a statement there is insufficient observational data rule out an impact -- for more information read  Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini
  • Torino Scale 0
    • "The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.."
  • On the NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page: Yes
    • NEODyS Recovery Campaign: 2017-08-31 to 2017-10-24
  • Discovery observation was made: 2012 10 04.467661
  • Discovery observation was made by Pan-STARRS 1 (MPC Code F51) The Discovery M.P.E.C.: MPEC 2012-T18 : 2012 TC4
  • Last Observation (publish): 2017 09 28.45648 (by the at Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala  (MPC Code F51 ) )
  • Data-Arc Span (publish):  1820 days (4.98 years)
  • Number of Optical Observations(published):445
  • Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations(MPC Code):
    • (089) Nikolaev, Ukraine.
    • (104) San Marcello Pistoiese,Italy.
    •  (113) Drebach, Germany.
    • (204) Schiaparelli Observatory,Italy.
    • (291) LPL/Spacewatch II, US/Arizona.
    • (300) Bisei Spaceguard Center-BATTeRS, Japan. 
    • (309) Cerro Paranal, Chile. 
    • (461) Szeged University, Piszkéstető Stn. (Konkoly), Hungary. 
    • (470) Ceccano, Italy.
    • (695) Kitt Peak, US/Arizona. 
    • (703) Catalina Sky Survey, US/Arizona. 
    • (716) Palmer Divide Observatory, Colorado Springs, US/Colorado.
    • (718) Tooele  (N40.641406 W112.295800)  US/Utah.  
    • (807) Cerro Tololo Observatory, La Serena,Chile.   
    • (857) Iowa Robotic Observatory, Sonoita US/Arizona.
    • (900) Moriyama, Japan.
    • (932) John J. McCarthy Obs., New Milford, US/Connecticut.
    • (B04) OAVdA, Saint-Barthelemy,Italy.  
    • (B88) Bigmuskie Observatory, Mombercelli, Italy.
    • (C32) Ka-Dar Observatory, TAU Station, Nizhny Arkhyz, Russia.
    • (C77) Bernezzo Observatory, Italy.
    • (E10) Siding Spring-Faulkes Telescope South, Australia/NSW.
    • (F51) Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala, US/Hawaii.
    • (F65) Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North, US/Hawaii.
    • (G40) Slooh.com Canary Islands Observatory,Canary Islands (Spain). 
    • (G48) Harlingten Research Observatory, Rancho Hildalgo, US/New Mexico.
    • (G96) Mt. Lemmon Survey,US/Arizona.  
    • (H01) Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Socorro, US/New   Mexico. 
    • (H06) iTelescope, Mayhill, US/New   Mexico. 
    • (H17) Angel Peaks Observatory,US/Colorado.
    • (H21) Astronomical Research Observatory, Westfield, US/Illinois. 
    • (H36) Sandlot Observatory, Scranton, US/Kansas.
    • (J04) ESA Optical Ground Station, Tenerife, Canary   Islands (Spain).  
    • (J16) An Carraig Observatory, Loughinisland,UK.
    • (J84) South Observatory, Clanfield,UK.
    • (J95) Great Shefford,UK.  
    • (T09) Mauna Kea-UH/Tholen NEO Follow-Up (Subaru), US/Hawaii.
    • (T12) Mauna Kea-UH/Tholen NEO Follow-Up (2.24-m),US/Hawaii. 
    • (U69) iTelescope SRO Observatory, Auberry, US/California.  
    • (W85) Cerro Tololo-LCO A, Chile.
  •  Perihelion Distance: 0.9339351095314381(AU)
  •  Aphelion Distance:1.877536903700616(AU)
  • Earth MOID (Earth center to NEO center):0.000146791 AU (0.057( LD)), (3.446 Earth radii)  or 13,645.076 miles ( 21,959.471 (KM))
  • Next Close-Approach to Earth:  Will safely pass Earth on 2017-Oct-12 at a 
    • Minimum Distance(Earth center to NEO center) of 0.000335152723175429(AU) (0.13(LD)), (7.8697 Earth radii) or 31,154.392 miles (50,138.134(KM)) 
    • Nominal Distance(Earth center to NEO center) of 0.000335252629744477(AU) (0.13(LD)), ( 7.8720 Earth radii) or 31,163.679 miles ( 50,153.08(KM))
    • Maximum Distance(Earth center to NEO center) of 0.000335352538623426(AU) (0.13 (LD)), (7.8744 Earth radii) or 31,172.966 miles (50,168.026(KM))   
  •  Goldstone Asteroid Schedule: Yes  2017 Oct ( Needs Astrometry: No Physical Observations Yes)