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Showing posts with label ( Orbit type: Apollo ). Show all posts
Showing posts with label ( Orbit type: Apollo ). Show all posts

Jun 14, 2020

2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240" Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"

2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240"  Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"

This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid. Image: Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech
This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid.
ImageCourtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech

Throughout the year, very small rocks strick the Earth's atmosphere and creating spectacular fireballs.  Most of these rocks travel through space unknown to habitats of Earth until they strick the atmosphere.   If we are lucky, the fireball will be seen and reported.  If we are really lucky, the fireballs will be capture on film.  The most vast majority of fireballs are of no danger what so ever. Most fireballs are like rainbows in that they are cool.  Four times in the past, these rocks travel through the field of vision of an asteroid observer before impact. Observation was taken. The rocks were given designations, like 2014 AA( i.e., the first discovery of the first half of January in 2014), and the rocks "became" asteroids.  These four asteroids were on the safe side when it comes to size.

In the first half of November 2018, an asteroid was discovered and give the designation 2018 VP1.  This asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. This asteroid was only observed 21 times over 13 days. 

In orbit determination, one calculation what orbit will place the object in the sky where it was seen. If one knows an object's orbit, it knows where it is going and where it will be in the sky.  All observations are "imperfect," so there will be many similar orbits.  If one were to create virtual asteroids for each of the similar orbits and did a simulation, one would see over time. The virtual asteroids move apart from each other to create an uncertainty region.  The real asteroid is somewhere within the uncertainty region. When doing the simulation, if any of the virtual asteroids impact the Earth, they become virtual impactors, and there is 'Non-Zero' probability of the real asteroid hitting the Earth.  By calculating the percentage of virtual impactors to virtual asteroids, one can calculate the risk of impact.

There is a very low-risk impact 2018 VP1 will on 2020-11-02. However, it must be restarted this asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. We have a fireball this size about two times a year.


Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits for the NEO 2018 VP1
Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits  for the NEO 2018 VP1. One can use Monte Carlo method to  create virtual asteroids. By using orbits of  the virtual asteroids one can can see where the "real" asteroid could go. If any of virtual asteroids impact the Earth they become  known as  virtual impactors and the is 'Non-Zero' probability of  the real  asteroid hitting the Earth



Background

(as of 2020-06-13 )

Note: this was edited  to add links missing data formatting,  typos, replace, the image of Find_orb computing, fixing bad links .

Apr 2, 2020

The NEO[Apollo] 2017 ES2 on 2020-03-30 from Siding Spring Observatory Australia (MPC Q62).

The NEO[Apollo] 2017 ES2 on 2020-03-30 from Siding Spring Observatory Australia (MPC Q62).

 

The NEO[Apollo] 2017 ES2 on 2020-03-30 from Siding Spring Observatory Australia (MPC Q62)
By Steven M. Tilley

Credits

The targeting information was obtained from the
The Minor Planet Center (MPC)
http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/

The images where taken with iTelescope.net's
T30 (0.50-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)  Siding Spring Observatory Australia (MPC Q62)
http://iTelescope.Net/

Data reduction,  the stacked image, and  the object verification windows was done with Astrometrica
http://www.astrometrica.at/


Image blinking  was done with CCDStack2
http://www.ccdware.com/

Music
Attack of the Mole Men - Stings by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1100321
Artist: http://incompetech.com/

The data was examine with the help of
Find_Orb Orbit determination software - Project Pluto
http://www.projectpluto.com/find_orb.htm
(c) Steven M. Tilley
http://lagniappeobserving.com

Mar 2, 2020

Tracking 2020 DR2 on 2020-03-02


The risk list object 2020 DR2 from Siding Spring Observatory Australia - MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 stacks of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD).

Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring( archive) http://archive.is/yjIZm
NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page ( archive) http://archive.ph/HVdHX
also see Jon Giorgini's "Understanding Risk Pages" http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/by/giorgjon.htm


The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley