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Showing posts with label NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page. Show all posts

Jul 21, 2020

The NEO 2020 NK1 Has Been Rated Torino Impact Hazard Scale 1 -- Normal (Green Zone)

The NEO 2020 NK1 Has Been Rated Torino Impact Hazard Scale 1 this happens a few times a year. The current Torino Scale state for 1 " A routine discovery in which a pass near Earth is predicted, that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to reassignment to Level 0."  2020 NK1 just need more observations.

Artist's concept of a near-Earth object. ImageCourtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech

Perihelion 2020 Sep 21.139924 +/- 0.224 TT =  3:21:29 (JD 2459113.639924)
Epoch 2020 Jul 17.0 TT = JDT 2459047.5   Earth MOID: 0.0027   Ve: 0.0545
M 320.28294890 +/- 0.8              (J2000 ecliptic)          Find_Orb
n   0.60050040 +/- 0.0106           Peri.  107.92176 +/- 0.35
a   1.39142727 +/- 0.0164           Node   311.10237 +/- 0.024
e   0.6466292 +/- 0.00384           Incl.   45.40097 +/- 0.25
P   1.64/599.49d           H 19.0   G  0.15   U  9.7
q 0.49168968 +/- 0.000482    Q 2.29116486 +/- 0.0332
From 29 observations 2020 July 13-19; mean residual 0".18
Background
(as of 2020-07-20 ) 
(Check links for Updates)
  • (474) Mount John Observatory, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand.
  • (E10) Siding Spring-Faulkes Telescope South, Australia/NSW.
  • (T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala, US/Hawaii.  Observer
  • (T08) ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa,US/Hawaii.  Observers
  • (W88) Slooh.com Chile Observatory, La Dehesa,Chile.
  • (Z84) Calar Alto-Schmidt, Spain. 
  • Perihelion Distance: 0.49 AU
  • Aphelion Distance: 2.28 AU
  • Earth MOID: 0.00278361 AU (1.083 Lunar Distance) 65.29 Earth radii
  • Close-Approach to Earth:  2020-Jul-31 Minimum Distance  0.052769696480622 (AU) 20.536 Lunar Distance (LD)
Also see:

 

Jun 19, 2020

A Foofaraw Over a NEO Designated 2018 VP1

Artist's concept of a near-Earth object. ImageCourtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech
Commentary 
Over the years, the tabloids as shown a propensity for raising a foofaraw over Near-Earth Objects. The Close-Approach of 2018 VP1 is only about four months away, and an internet search will reveal several clickbait stories. Many times it appears that tabloid writers pick a random asteroid and writes a "story" about it. At times one must have some background or do some research to see what the more accurate story is.

There is a low probability, 1 in 240, that the two-meter 2018 VP1 will strike the Earth's atmosphere and create spectacular fireballs on 2020-11-02. A test with the Imperial College London's Earth Impact Effects Program reports, "The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 0.2 years". In other words, it would be safe to assume objects the size of 2018 VP1 has impacted Earth's atmosphere since 2018-Nov-03, the date of discovery. The Earth Impact Effects Program also suggests that the fireball is unlikely to do any significant damage. NASA JPL list kinetic energy at impact from 2018 VP1[IF ANY] as ~ 0.00042 MegaTons of TNT. The Chelyabinsk event was 0.4 to 0.5 MegaTons of TNT.

Four times in the past, NEOs were observed by observers of asteroids before impact. These four asteroids(2008 TC3,2014 AA, 2018 LA, and 2019 MO) all were on the safe side when it comes to size.

 Object Date of discovery Date of Impact Size(M)
 2008 TC32008-10-06 2008-10-07 4.1
 2014 AA2014-01-01 2014-01-02 2–4
 2018 LA2018-06-02 2018-06-02 2.6–3.8
 2019 MO2019-06-22 2019-06-22 3–10

One of the programs available to the amateur observers of asteroids and comets is Find_Orb.[By Bill Gray] It is useful for calculating approximate ephemeris, determining approximate orbits, generating virtual asteroids, virtual impactors, predicting impact locations, and many other things. It should be noted IF one uses the wrong setting, one gets an incorrect solution. Find_Orb can generate an "asteroid risk corridor" with the help of Guide 9.1.[By Bill Gray]

Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits  for the NEO 2018 VP1. One can use Monte Carlo method to  create virtual asteroids. By using orbits of  the virtual asteroids one can can see where the "real" asteroid could go. If any of virtual asteroids impact the Earth they become  known as  virtual impactors and the is 'Non-Zero' probability of  the real  asteroid hitting the Earth 

My Find_orb Setting

 Selecting perturbers All
 Epoch 2020-11-01.051
 Monte Carlo noise 2
 Physical model Include  SRP
 Filler out 3 worst observations

As a test of concept, I obtained the observations of 2018 VP1 for the Minor Planet Center. I loaded the observations into Find_Orb and had it run the Monte Carlo method all night. Find_orb generated the following files MPCOrb.datstate.txt, and  virtual.txt. These files had orbits for 129,659 virtual asteroids 200 were virtual impactors( about 0.15%). I place a copy of the virtual.txt file in the Guide directory along with a copy of impact.tdf.(Project Pluto) Then Guide could generate a map of an asteroid risk corridor.

An asteroid (fireball) risk corridor of potential impact for the NEO 2018 VP1, the orange dots is where 200 virtual impactors strike the Earth's atmosphere.

Note: Because there were more than 9 observations, I had to edited virtual.txt to do a workaround. I replace "18 of 21" with "U of O" see edited virtual.txt; this keeps the columns in the right place. I also edited impact.tdf(My) file where I can have more than one risk corridor.



Peter Thomas @ptastro1 also  this path of risk for 2018 VP1 on Twitter

Background

(as of 2020-06-13 )

 
Also see
 

Note this has been edit to fix links and know typos.

Jun 14, 2020

2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240" Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"

2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240"  Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"

This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid. Image: Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech
This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid.
ImageCourtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech

Throughout the year, very small rocks strick the Earth's atmosphere and creating spectacular fireballs.  Most of these rocks travel through space unknown to habitats of Earth until they strick the atmosphere.   If we are lucky, the fireball will be seen and reported.  If we are really lucky, the fireballs will be capture on film.  The most vast majority of fireballs are of no danger what so ever. Most fireballs are like rainbows in that they are cool.  Four times in the past, these rocks travel through the field of vision of an asteroid observer before impact. Observation was taken. The rocks were given designations, like 2014 AA( i.e., the first discovery of the first half of January in 2014), and the rocks "became" asteroids.  These four asteroids were on the safe side when it comes to size.

In the first half of November 2018, an asteroid was discovered and give the designation 2018 VP1.  This asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. This asteroid was only observed 21 times over 13 days. 

In orbit determination, one calculation what orbit will place the object in the sky where it was seen. If one knows an object's orbit, it knows where it is going and where it will be in the sky.  All observations are "imperfect," so there will be many similar orbits.  If one were to create virtual asteroids for each of the similar orbits and did a simulation, one would see over time. The virtual asteroids move apart from each other to create an uncertainty region.  The real asteroid is somewhere within the uncertainty region. When doing the simulation, if any of the virtual asteroids impact the Earth, they become virtual impactors, and there is 'Non-Zero' probability of the real asteroid hitting the Earth.  By calculating the percentage of virtual impactors to virtual asteroids, one can calculate the risk of impact.

There is a very low-risk impact 2018 VP1 will on 2020-11-02. However, it must be restarted this asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. We have a fireball this size about two times a year.


Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits for the NEO 2018 VP1
Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits  for the NEO 2018 VP1. One can use Monte Carlo method to  create virtual asteroids. By using orbits of  the virtual asteroids one can can see where the "real" asteroid could go. If any of virtual asteroids impact the Earth they become  known as  virtual impactors and the is 'Non-Zero' probability of  the real  asteroid hitting the Earth



Background

(as of 2020-06-13 )

Note: this was edited  to add links missing data formatting,  typos, replace, the image of Find_orb computing, fixing bad links .

Mar 2, 2020

Tracking 2020 DR2 on 2020-03-02


The risk list object 2020 DR2 from Siding Spring Observatory Australia - MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 stacks of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD).

Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring( archive) http://archive.is/yjIZm
NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page ( archive) http://archive.ph/HVdHX
also see Jon Giorgini's "Understanding Risk Pages" http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/by/giorgjon.htm


The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley

Mar 17, 2019

The NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2 on on 2019-03-17


Image of the NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2 on 2019-03-17 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain ( MPC I89) a stack of 20-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (T07 TEL 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
Image of the NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2 on 2019-03-17 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain ( MPC I89) a stack of 20-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (T07 TEL 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
Image of the NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2 on 2019-03-17 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain ( MPC I89) a stack of 20-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (T07 TEL 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2  was first observed by the Mt. Lemmon Survey on 2019-03-09. I has an absolute magnitude of 25.852 giving it  an estimated diameter of 18 m - 40 m. This asteroid will make a close approach of 0.8 lunar distance on 2019-Mar-22.
See :

https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2019EA2

https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.0&n=2019EA2

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2019 EA2

http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/mn/19/19076_0317.htm

https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K19/K19F08.html

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/

Jan 14, 2019

Observing The NEO 2019 AG7 on 2019-01-13 from Siding Spring Australia


The asteroid 2019 AG7(Classification: Aten [NEO])
[Estimated Diameter 23 m - 51 m]
on 2019-01-13
from Siding Spring Observatory,
 Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 12 - 5 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30)
By Steven M. Tilley



The asteroid 2019 AG7(Classification: Aten [NEO])
[Estimated Diameter 23 m - 51 m]
on 2019-01-13
from Siding Spring Observatory,
 Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 12 - 5 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30)
By Steven M. Tilley
..

The asteroid 2019 AG7(Classification: Aten [NEO])
[Estimated Diameter 23 m - 51 m]
on 2019-01-13
from Siding Spring Observatory,
 Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 12 - 5 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30)
By Steven M. Tilley

Orbit diagram 2019 AG7
Earth Distance: 0.014 AU
Sun Distance: 0.988 AU
courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech
2019-01-13 13:25 UTC
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2019AG7


Background
(as of 2019-01-13)
  • Object:2019 AG7 
  • Orbit Type: Aten [NEO]
  • Approximate Diameter: 23 m to 51 m (75.4593 feet to  167.323) (Absolute Magnitude: H= 25.32)
  • On the Sentry Risk Table:  Yes 
    •  NOTE this is NOT a prediction of an impact but rather a statement there is insufficient observational data rule out an impact -- for more information read  Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini
    • "The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.."
  •  On the NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page: Yes
  • First(Precovery) Observation was made: 2018 12 31.614374(By Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala, US/Hawaii.  (MPC Code F51))
  • Discovery observation was made:2019 01 09.37994 (By the Catalina Sky Survey, US/Arizona. (MPC Code 703)
  • Last Observation(publish): 2019 01 12.582898 (By Mauna Kea-UH/Tholen NEO Follow-Up (2.24-m) (MPC Code T12)
  • Data-Arc Span (publish): 12 days
  • Number of Optical Observations(published):54
  • Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations(MPC Code): 
    • (204) Schiaparelli Observatory,Italy. 
    • (291) LPL/Spacewatch II, US/Arizona.  
    • (474) Mount John Observatory, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand. 
    • (703) Catalina Sky Survey, US/Arizona. 
    • (807) Cerro Tololo Observatory, La Serena, Chile.
    • (F51) Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala  (N20.707235 W156.255910)  US/Hawaii.
    • (F65) Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North, US/Hawaii. 
    • (G40) Slooh.com Canary Islands Observatory, Canary Islands (Spain).
    • (I52) Steward Observatory, Mt. Lemmon Station
    • (J04) ESA Optical Ground Station, Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). 
    • (J95) Great Shefford,UK. 
    • (L01) Višnjan Observatory, Tičan, Croatia.
    • (T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala, US/Hawaii. 
    • (T12) Mauna Kea-UH/Tholen NEO Follow-Up (2.24-m), US/Hawaii. 
  • Perihelion Distance: 0.4829280277140071(AU)
  • Aphelion Distance: 1.007267187900272(AU)
  • Earth MOID: 0.00482722(AU),  1.879 (LD), 113.348270821(Earth Radii), 448,718.132 (Miles), or 722,141.833(KM)
  • Close-Approach to Earth: Will safely pass Earth on 2019-Jan-15 at a Nominal Distance of  0.0100782635426263(AU), 3.922(LD), 236.648370166 (Earth Radii), 936,833.123(Miles), or 1,507,686.766(KM)

Sep 10, 2018

More Follow-up Observations of 2018 RQ1


The NEO(Aten) 2018 RQ1 (approximate diameters 39 m - 88 m [127.953 foot - 288.7139 foot]) was first observed by the Catalina Sky Survey on 2018-09-07. As of 2018-09-10 2018 RQ1 as a data-arc span of 72.77 hr with 44 published observations. 2018 RQ1 is listed on the NASA/JPL Sentry and NEODyS CLOMON2 risk pages.(as of 2018-09-10) In an effort to help with the improvement of the known orbit I booked imaging runs on iTelescope.net's T11 and T24 of 60-30 second luminance BIN2 images each.

I was able to obtain 20 images from T11. I use Astrometrica to do the data reduction by way of the stack and track method. I had Astrometrica stack 3 sets(stacks) of 6 images. Each image was shifted match the movement of 2018 RQ1.

An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-10
from Mayhill, New Mexico
[New Mexico Skies](MPC Code H06)
a stack of 6-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T11)
By Steven M. Tilley

An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-10 
from Mayhill, New Mexico 
[New Mexico Skies](MPC Code H06) 
a stack of 6-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T11) 
By Steven M. Tilley
An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-10 
from Mayhill, New Mexico 
[New Mexico Skies](MPC Code H06) 
a stack of 6-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T11) 
By Steven M. Tilley
I was able to obtain 49 images from T24. I use Astrometrica to do the data reduction by way of the stack and track method. I had Astrometrica stack 3 sets(stacks) of 14 images. I had work around the meridian flip.

An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-10 
from Sierra Remote Observatory, Auberry, California (MPC U69) 
a stack of 14-30 second luminance BIN2 images 
taken with iTelescope.net's (T24) 
By Steven M. Tilley
An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-10 
from Sierra Remote Observatory, Auberry, California (MPC U69) 
a stack of 14-30 second luminance BIN2 images 
taken with iTelescope.net's (T24) 
By Steven M. Tilley
An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-10 
from Sierra Remote Observatory, Auberry, California (MPC U69) 
a stack of 14-30 second luminance BIN2 images 
taken with iTelescope.net's (T24) 
By Steven M. Tilley
see
Accessible NEA(Object/Trajectory Details for 2018 RQ1)

Sep 9, 2018

Follow-up Observations of 2018 RQ1

The NEO(Aten) 2018 RQ1 (approximate diameters 39 m - 88 m [127.953 foot - 288.7139 foot]) was first observed by the Catalina Sky Survey on 2018-09-07.  As of 2018-09-09 2018 RQ1 as a data-arc span of 31.5 hr with 22 published observations. 2018 RQ1 is listed on the NASA/JPL Sentry and NEODyS CLOMON2 risk pages.(as of 2018-09-09) In an  effort to help with the improvement  of the known orbit I had iTelescope.net's(T30) start taking images and was able to obtain 22-30 Second Luminance BIN2. I use Astrometrica to do the data reduction by way of the stack and track method. I had Astrometrica stack 3 sets(stacks) of  7 images.  Each image was shifted match the movement of  2018 RQ1.

An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-09 from
Siding Spring Observatory,
Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 22-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30)
by Steven M. Tilley

An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-09 from
Siding Spring Observatory,
Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 7-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30)
by Steven M. Tilley

An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-09 from
Siding Spring Observatory,
Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 7-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30)
by Steven M. Tilley


An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-09 from
Siding Spring Observatory,
Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 7-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30)
by Steven M. Tilley



see
Accessible NEA(Object/Trajectory Details for 2018 RQ1)

Confirmation images of the NEO 2018 RQ1

The NEO(Aten) 2018 RQ1 (approximate diameters 39 m - 88 m [127.953 foot - 288.7139 foot]) was first observed by the Catalina Sky Survey on 2018-09-07. It was posted to the NEO Confirmation Page(NEOCP) under the observer-assigned temporary designations "ZR388AE"  In an  effort to help in the confirmation I obtain 60-30 Second Luminance BIN2 taken using  iTelescope.net's(T31).

Orbit diagram for 2018 RQ1
Earth Distance: 0.031 au
Sun Distance: 1.025 au
2018-09-08 16:25 UTC
courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2018RQ1

Orbit diagram for 2018 RQ1
Earth Distance: 0.031 au
Sun Distance: 1.025 au
2018-09-08 16:25 UTC
courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2018RQ1

Orbit diagram for 2018 RQ1
Earth Distance: 0.031 au
Sun Distance: 1.025 au
2018-09-08 16:25 UTC
courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2018RQ1

I use Astrometrica to do the data reduction by way of the stack and track method. I had Astrometrica stack 3 sets(stacks) of  20 images.  Each image was shifted match movement of  2018 RQ1(ZR388AE).

A confirmation image of the NEO 2018 RQ1(ZR388AE)
on 2018-09-08 from Siding Spring Observatory,
Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 20-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T31)
by Steven M. Tilley

A confirmation image of the NEO 2018 RQ1(ZR388AE)
on 2018-09-08 from Siding Spring Observatory,
Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 20-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T31)
by Steven M. Tilley

A confirmation image of the NEO 2018 RQ1(ZR388AE)
on 2018-09-08 from Siding Spring Observatory,
Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 20-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T31)
by Steven M. Tilley

A confirmation image of the NEO 2018 RQ1(ZR388AE)
on 2018-09-08 from Siding Spring Observatory,
Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 60-30 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T31)
by Steven M. Tilley

I submitted my observations to the  Minor Planet Center(MPC). On 2018 Sept. 8 at 21:42 UTC the MPC Issued MPEC 2018-R63 : 2018 RQ1  assigning the objet the provisonaldesignation 2018 RQ1.

How Are Minor Planets Named?