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Showing posts with label Social Media. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Social Media. Show all posts

Jun 14, 2020

2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240" Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"

2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240"  Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"

This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid. Image: Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech
This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid.
Image: Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech

Throughout the year, very small rocks strick the Earth's atmosphere and creating spectacular fireballs.  Most of these rocks travel through space unknown to habitats of Earth until they strick the atmosphere.   If we are lucky, the fireball will be seen and reported.  If we are really lucky, the fireballs will be capture on film.  The most vast majority of fireballs are of no danger what so ever. Most fireballs are like rainbows in that they are cool.  Four times in the past, these rocks travel through the field of vision of an asteroid observer before impact. Observation was taken. The rocks were given designations, like 2014 AA( i.e., the first discovery of the first half of January in 2014), and the rocks "became" asteroids.  These four asteroids were on the safe side when it comes to size.

In the first half of November 2018, an asteroid was discovered and give the designation 2018 VP1.  This asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. This asteroid was only observed 21 times over 13 days. 

In orbit determination, one calculation what orbit will place the object in the sky where it was seen. If one knows an object's orbit, it knows where it is going and where it will be in the sky.  All observations are "imperfect," so there will be many similar orbits.  If one were to create virtual asteroids for each of the similar orbits and did a simulation, one would see over time. The virtual asteroids move apart from each other to create an uncertainty region.  The real asteroid is somewhere within the uncertainty region. When doing the simulation, if any of the virtual asteroids impact the Earth, they become virtual impactors, and there is 'Non-Zero' probability of the real asteroid hitting the Earth.  By calculating the percentage of virtual impactors to virtual asteroids, one can calculate the risk of impact.

There is a very low-risk impact 2018 VP1 will on 2020-11-02. However, it must be restarted this asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. We have a fireball this size about two times a year.


Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits for the NEO 2018 VP1
Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits  for the NEO 2018 VP1. One can use Monte Carlo method to  create virtual asteroids. By using orbits of  the virtual asteroids one can can see where the "real" asteroid could go. If any of virtual asteroids impact the Earth they become  known as  virtual impactors and the is 'Non-Zero' probability of  the real  asteroid hitting the Earth



Background

(as of 2020-06-13 )

Note: this was edited  to add links missing data formatting,  typos, replace, the image of Find_orb computing, fixing bad links .
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Jun 3, 2018

A Rock Designated ZLAF9B2(now 2018 LA) Social Media and Fireball Reports

On  2018-06-02 Richard A. Kowalski, with the Catalina Sky Survey reported observations of a "new" object, given  the observ3er-assigned temporary designation "ZLAF9B2", to  Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.  It was posted to the NEOCP(NEO Confirmation Page) making the observations available to asteroid and comet  researcher around the world.   The data was analyzed and posted JPL's Scout: NEOCP Hazard Assessment, independently analyzed and posted to Bill Gray's  Current NEOCP summary page. Then emails  to mailing list post to social madia started going out. It was know to be small at the start.

When wroke up on 2018-06-02 I check iTelescope.net and saw their facility in Siding Spring Observatory, AU was clouded out than I went out to eat breakfast.  When got back just to see what I would observe if I could observe, I check the NEOCP and saw that ZLAF9B2 was "bright",  and  then  check "The Minor Planet Mailing List {MPML}" Some of the asteroid and comet researchers where talking.  The Bill Gray sent and a number of  carefully worded emails to email list  stating ZLAF9B2 should be a "Priority Target".
 
One of the programs available to asteroid and comet researchers is Find_Orb it is useful for calculating approximate ephemeris, determining approximate orbits, residuals,  generating virtual asteroids, virtual impactors, predicting impact locations, and many other things.  It should be noted  IF one uses wrong setting one get a totally wrong solution. One things Find_Orb can be use for is generating a "asteroid risk corridor" with the help of Guide 9.1. This should be done with care because of uncertainties in  observations how one sets the over-observing parameters as well with other setting can the effect the results.  Bill Gray posted post a risk corridor for ZLAF9B2 and I thought I would give it a try. I had Find_Orb generated  virtual asteroids and virtual impactors using a  monte carlo process. 


Here is my TEST with Find_Orb using a monte carlo process see the files here

Here is my TEST with Find_Orb using a monte carlo process see the files here
Before I share my results ZLAF9B2(now 2018 LA)  "impacted" the Earth over southern Africa creating a Fireball. around 2018-06-02 16:45 UT and posts about impact started making.  After the impact two (pre-impact) follow up observations from ATLAS-MLO(Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System ---Mauna Loa) were posted to  the NEOCP(NEO Confirmation Page)  Then I did another  monte carlo process with the newly added ATLAS observations.

Test with the newly added ATLAS observations with Find_Orb
 using a monte carlo process see the files here
On 2018-06-04  the Minor Planet Center issues MPEC 2018-L04 : 2018 LA  Stating
"that the objectreached 50-km height above the Earth's surface around 16:51 UTC over southern Africa."

Timeline of SOME of the Post to Social Media














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