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Showing posts with label JPL NEO Program Sentry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JPL NEO Program Sentry. Show all posts

Oct 5, 2020

Jul 21, 2020

The NEO 2020 NK1 Has Been Rated Torino Impact Hazard Scale 1 -- Normal (Green Zone)

The NEO 2020 NK1 Has Been Rated Torino Impact Hazard Scale 1 this happens a few times a year. The current Torino Scale state for 1 " A routine discovery in which a pass near Earth is predicted, that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to reassignment to Level 0."  2020 NK1 just need more observations.

Artist's concept of a near-Earth object. ImageCourtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech

Perihelion 2020 Sep 21.139924 +/- 0.224 TT =  3:21:29 (JD 2459113.639924)
Epoch 2020 Jul 17.0 TT = JDT 2459047.5   Earth MOID: 0.0027   Ve: 0.0545
M 320.28294890 +/- 0.8              (J2000 ecliptic)          Find_Orb
n   0.60050040 +/- 0.0106           Peri.  107.92176 +/- 0.35
a   1.39142727 +/- 0.0164           Node   311.10237 +/- 0.024
e   0.6466292 +/- 0.00384           Incl.   45.40097 +/- 0.25
P   1.64/599.49d           H 19.0   G  0.15   U  9.7
q 0.49168968 +/- 0.000482    Q 2.29116486 +/- 0.0332
From 29 observations 2020 July 13-19; mean residual 0".18
Background
(as of 2020-07-20 ) 
(Check links for Updates)
  • (474) Mount John Observatory, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand.
  • (E10) Siding Spring-Faulkes Telescope South, Australia/NSW.
  • (T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala, US/Hawaii.  Observer
  • (T08) ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa,US/Hawaii.  Observers
  • (W88) Slooh.com Chile Observatory, La Dehesa,Chile.
  • (Z84) Calar Alto-Schmidt, Spain. 
  • Perihelion Distance: 0.49 AU
  • Aphelion Distance: 2.28 AU
  • Earth MOID: 0.00278361 AU (1.083 Lunar Distance) 65.29 Earth radii
  • Close-Approach to Earth:  2020-Jul-31 Minimum Distance  0.052769696480622 (AU) 20.536 Lunar Distance (LD)
Also see:

 

Jun 14, 2020

2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240" Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"

2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240"  Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"

This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid. Image: Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech
This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid.
ImageCourtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech

Throughout the year, very small rocks strick the Earth's atmosphere and creating spectacular fireballs.  Most of these rocks travel through space unknown to habitats of Earth until they strick the atmosphere.   If we are lucky, the fireball will be seen and reported.  If we are really lucky, the fireballs will be capture on film.  The most vast majority of fireballs are of no danger what so ever. Most fireballs are like rainbows in that they are cool.  Four times in the past, these rocks travel through the field of vision of an asteroid observer before impact. Observation was taken. The rocks were given designations, like 2014 AA( i.e., the first discovery of the first half of January in 2014), and the rocks "became" asteroids.  These four asteroids were on the safe side when it comes to size.

In the first half of November 2018, an asteroid was discovered and give the designation 2018 VP1.  This asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. This asteroid was only observed 21 times over 13 days. 

In orbit determination, one calculation what orbit will place the object in the sky where it was seen. If one knows an object's orbit, it knows where it is going and where it will be in the sky.  All observations are "imperfect," so there will be many similar orbits.  If one were to create virtual asteroids for each of the similar orbits and did a simulation, one would see over time. The virtual asteroids move apart from each other to create an uncertainty region.  The real asteroid is somewhere within the uncertainty region. When doing the simulation, if any of the virtual asteroids impact the Earth, they become virtual impactors, and there is 'Non-Zero' probability of the real asteroid hitting the Earth.  By calculating the percentage of virtual impactors to virtual asteroids, one can calculate the risk of impact.

There is a very low-risk impact 2018 VP1 will on 2020-11-02. However, it must be restarted this asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. We have a fireball this size about two times a year.


Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits for the NEO 2018 VP1
Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits  for the NEO 2018 VP1. One can use Monte Carlo method to  create virtual asteroids. By using orbits of  the virtual asteroids one can can see where the "real" asteroid could go. If any of virtual asteroids impact the Earth they become  known as  virtual impactors and the is 'Non-Zero' probability of  the real  asteroid hitting the Earth



Background

(as of 2020-06-13 )

Note: this was edited  to add links missing data formatting,  typos, replace, the image of Find_orb computing, fixing bad links .

Mar 2, 2020

Tracking 2020 DR2 on 2020-03-02


The risk list object 2020 DR2 from Siding Spring Observatory Australia - MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 stacks of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD).

Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring( archive) http://archive.is/yjIZm
NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page ( archive) http://archive.ph/HVdHX
also see Jon Giorgini's "Understanding Risk Pages" http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/by/giorgjon.htm


The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from
Siding Spring Observatory Australia -
MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a
stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images
taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley

Oct 28, 2019

The 2019 UB8 2019-10-29 Flyby! How Close? Is Close?

(2019 UB8) approximate (0.50 LD) flyby distance from Earth
This image adapted by Steven M Tilley from the image the original
Earth-Moon.png by Nickshanks
 under licensed under the
Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic license
Tonight(2019-Oct-28/29) the NEO 2019 UB8 (4.4 m - 9.7 m) will do a flyby(A.K.A NEO Earth Close Approaches) of a Nominal Distance of 0.50 LD (0.00127 AU) ~191,000 KM (~ 119,000 miles). Sorting by nominal distance, this close approach is listed in the top 270 of 22,500+ entries in JPL's close approach database. (As of 2019-Oct-28) Flybys within one LD are quite common from what we "know" NEOs flybys within one LD a few times every week or so.

If  the Earth was the size of a basketball  how far would the Moon be?
What is Close

Close is a relative term. "Close" to a major sports venue is not the same as "close" to the ER. If one were to think of a basketball-size Earth, it may in understanding what is "close" and what is "far." In this, basketball-size Earth system, the ISS would be at ~0.76 CM (0.3 inches); we had NEO Flybys at 10.35 CM (4.1 inches) [ 2011 CQ1 on 2011-Feb-04] before. The Moon would range from ~673.41 CM (~22.0 Ft) to ~753.81 CM (~24.7 Ft). 2019 UB8 will be ~347.62 CM (~11.4 Ft) from the basketball. To see 2019 UB8 tonight, check out the Virtual Telescope Project.

Mar 17, 2019

The NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2 on on 2019-03-17


Image of the NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2 on 2019-03-17 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain ( MPC I89) a stack of 20-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (T07 TEL 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
Image of the NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2 on 2019-03-17 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain ( MPC I89) a stack of 20-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (T07 TEL 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
Image of the NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2 on 2019-03-17 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain ( MPC I89) a stack of 20-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (T07 TEL 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD)
By Steven M. Tilley
The NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2  was first observed by the Mt. Lemmon Survey on 2019-03-09. I has an absolute magnitude of 25.852 giving it  an estimated diameter of 18 m - 40 m. This asteroid will make a close approach of 0.8 lunar distance on 2019-Mar-22.
See :

https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2019EA2

https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.0&n=2019EA2

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2019 EA2

http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/mn/19/19076_0317.htm

https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K19/K19F08.html

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/

Jan 14, 2019

Observing The NEO 2019 AG7 on 2019-01-13 from Siding Spring Australia


The asteroid 2019 AG7(Classification: Aten [NEO])
[Estimated Diameter 23 m - 51 m]
on 2019-01-13
from Siding Spring Observatory,
 Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 12 - 5 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30)
By Steven M. Tilley



The asteroid 2019 AG7(Classification: Aten [NEO])
[Estimated Diameter 23 m - 51 m]
on 2019-01-13
from Siding Spring Observatory,
 Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 12 - 5 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30)
By Steven M. Tilley
..

The asteroid 2019 AG7(Classification: Aten [NEO])
[Estimated Diameter 23 m - 51 m]
on 2019-01-13
from Siding Spring Observatory,
 Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62)
a stack of 12 - 5 second luminance BIN2 images
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30)
By Steven M. Tilley

Orbit diagram 2019 AG7
Earth Distance: 0.014 AU
Sun Distance: 0.988 AU
courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech
2019-01-13 13:25 UTC
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2019AG7


Background
(as of 2019-01-13)
  • Object:2019 AG7 
  • Orbit Type: Aten [NEO]
  • Approximate Diameter: 23 m to 51 m (75.4593 feet to  167.323) (Absolute Magnitude: H= 25.32)
  • On the Sentry Risk Table:  Yes 
    •  NOTE this is NOT a prediction of an impact but rather a statement there is insufficient observational data rule out an impact -- for more information read  Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini
    • "The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.."
  •  On the NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page: Yes
  • First(Precovery) Observation was made: 2018 12 31.614374(By Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala, US/Hawaii.  (MPC Code F51))
  • Discovery observation was made:2019 01 09.37994 (By the Catalina Sky Survey, US/Arizona. (MPC Code 703)
  • Last Observation(publish): 2019 01 12.582898 (By Mauna Kea-UH/Tholen NEO Follow-Up (2.24-m) (MPC Code T12)
  • Data-Arc Span (publish): 12 days
  • Number of Optical Observations(published):54
  • Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations(MPC Code): 
    • (204) Schiaparelli Observatory,Italy. 
    • (291) LPL/Spacewatch II, US/Arizona.  
    • (474) Mount John Observatory, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand. 
    • (703) Catalina Sky Survey, US/Arizona. 
    • (807) Cerro Tololo Observatory, La Serena, Chile.
    • (F51) Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala  (N20.707235 W156.255910)  US/Hawaii.
    • (F65) Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North, US/Hawaii. 
    • (G40) Slooh.com Canary Islands Observatory, Canary Islands (Spain).
    • (I52) Steward Observatory, Mt. Lemmon Station
    • (J04) ESA Optical Ground Station, Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). 
    • (J95) Great Shefford,UK. 
    • (L01) Višnjan Observatory, Tičan, Croatia.
    • (T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala, US/Hawaii. 
    • (T12) Mauna Kea-UH/Tholen NEO Follow-Up (2.24-m), US/Hawaii. 
  • Perihelion Distance: 0.4829280277140071(AU)
  • Aphelion Distance: 1.007267187900272(AU)
  • Earth MOID: 0.00482722(AU),  1.879 (LD), 113.348270821(Earth Radii), 448,718.132 (Miles), or 722,141.833(KM)
  • Close-Approach to Earth: Will safely pass Earth on 2019-Jan-15 at a Nominal Distance of  0.0100782635426263(AU), 3.922(LD), 236.648370166 (Earth Radii), 936,833.123(Miles), or 1,507,686.766(KM)

Oct 1, 2018

September 2018 In NEO News in Review


The Japanese Space Agency,JAXA,  successfully landed two small robotic rovers on the asteroid Ryugu.

JPL Close Approach Data for September 2018  Distance Nominal <  1  Lunar Distance
Object Close-Approach (CA) Date
CA Distance Nominal 
(LD | au)
CA Distance Minimum 
 (LD | au)
H (mag) Estimated Diameter
2018 SM 2018-Sep-15  0.11 | 0.00028 0.11 | 0.00028 29.4 3.5 m -  7.9 m
2018 RZ5 2018-Sep-12 0.13 | 0.00033 0.13 | 0.00033 29.7 3.1 m -  6.9 m
2018 SD2 2018-Sep-25 0.23 | 0.00059 0.23 | 0.00058 28.6 5.0 m -   11 m
2018 RS 2018-Sep-05  0.28 | 0.00071 0.27 | 0.00071 29.5 3.4 m -  7.6 m
2018 RJ3 2018-Sep-07  0.44 | 0.00112 0.43 | 0.00112 27.8 7.2 m -   16 m
2018 RW 2018-Sep-08  0.44 | 0.00114 0.44 | 0.00114 30.3 2.3 m -  5.2 m
2018 RY5 2018-Sep-12  0.47 | 0.00120 0.47 | 0.00120 26.5 13 m -   30 m
2018 RC 2018-Sep-09 0.58 | 0.00150 0.58 | 0.00150 24.9 28 m -   63 m
2018 SC 2018-Sep-18  0.70 | 0.00179 0.70 | 0.00179 27.9 6.9 m -   16 m
2018 RR1 2018-Sep-03  0.94 | 0.00243 0.94 | 0.00242 29.9 2.7 m -  6.1 m
2018 RE2 2018-Sep-06  0.99 | 0.00255 0.99 | 0.00254 28.5 5.4 m -   12 m

Objects removed from JPL's Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring page.

Object Designation Removed (UTC)
2018 RB7 9/29/2018 15:26
2018 RJ7 9/22/2018 16:11
2018 RP5 9/16/2018 15:06
2018 RQ1 9/16/2018 15:00
2018 RH3 9/15/2018 16:06
2018 RT3 9/15/2018 16:04
2018 RE5 9/14/2018 15:18
2018 PY7 9/12/2018 15:02
2018 RP 9/09/2018 15:07
2018 MC7 9/07/2018 14:50
2018 RC 9/06/2018 15:04
2018 QJ1 9/03/2018 14:43

Highlights of My Work for September 2018   

A confirmation image of the NEO 2018 RQ1(ZR388AE)
on 2018-09-08 from Siding Spring Observatory, 
Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62) 
a stack of 60-30 second luminance BIN2 images 
taken with iTelescope.net's (T31) 
by Steven M. Tilley

An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-09 from 
Siding Spring Observatory, 
Coonabarabran, NSW, Australia. (MPC Q62) 
a stack of 22-30 second luminance BIN2 images 
taken with iTelescope.net's (T30) 
by Steven M. Tilley
An image of the NEO 2018 RQ1
on 2018-09-10 
from Sierra Remote Observatory, Auberry, California (MPC U69) 
a stack of 14-30 second luminance BIN2 images 
taken with iTelescope.net's (T24) 
By Steven M. Tilley



Object I observed in September 2018 
Designation Classification MPC Code Telescope Date of  observations Number of  observations
2046 Main Belt Q62 T17 9/2/2018 3
61324 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
61324 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
61417 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
61417 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
71460 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
71460 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
73540 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
73540 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
80076 Main Belt H06 T11 9/14/2018 3
83105 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
84966 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/8/2018 3
128837 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/8/2018 3
157941 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
173394 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
173394 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
197120 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
209101 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
231098 Main Belt Q62 T17 9/2/2018 3
253061 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
331431 Main Belt Q62 T31 9/8/2018 3
523788 NEO(Apollo) Q62 T17 9/30/2018 3
1998 SD9 NEO(Aten) H06 t11 9/1/2018 3
2018 RB NEO(Apollo, PHA) Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
2018 RB NEO(Apollo, PHA) Q62 T31 9/1/2018 3
2018 RB NEO(Apollo, PHA) Q62 T17 9/2/2018 3
2018 RP8 NEO(Aten) H06 T21 9/17/2018 4
2018 RQ1 NEO(Aten) Q62 T31 9/8/2018 3
2018 RQ1 NEO(Aten) Q62 T30 9/9/2018 3
2018 RQ1 NEO(Aten) H06 T11 9/10/2018 3
2018 RQ1 NEO(Aten) U69 T24 9/10/2018 3
21P/Giacobini-Zinner Comet H06 T11 9/14/2018 3
46P/Wirtanen Comet Q62 T17 9/22/2018 4
Total 101