I did a back of the envelope calculation using the JPL's fireball data
to estimated that asteroids equal to or greater than 2018 VP1 impact the
Earth at a rate of one every 37 to 53 days. IMHO we are at greater
risk from the "background." https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12i7lhXgL0u6m36eoenKDKV-dLtkoedz0/edit?f#gid=1305411600 asteroid https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2018%20VP1
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Showing posts with label JPL NEO Program Sentry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JPL NEO Program Sentry. Show all posts
Oct 5, 2020
Back of the Envelope Calculation Using the JPL's Fireball Data --- 2018 VP1
Jul 21, 2020
The NEO 2020 NK1 Has Been Rated Torino Impact Hazard Scale 1 -- Normal (Green Zone)
The NEO 2020 NK1 Has Been Rated Torino Impact Hazard Scale 1 this happens a few times a year. The current Torino Scale state for 1 "
A routine discovery in which a pass near Earth is predicted, that
poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance
of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or
public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to
reassignment to Level 0." 2020 NK1 just need more observations.
Artist's concept of a near-Earth object. Image: Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech |
Background
(as of 2020-07-20 )
(Check links for Updates)
- Object: 2020 NK1
- Orbit Type: Apollo [NEO, PHA]
- Approximate Diameter: 420 m - 940 m (1377.95 to 3083.99 Feet) (Absolute H= 19.0 )
- On the Sentry Risk Table: YES [26 Number of Potential Impacts 2084-2106]
- for more information read Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini
- On the NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page: YES[46 Number of Potential Impacts 2080-2103]
- Listed on The Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS):NO
- Listed on the Goldstone Asteroid Radar Schedule:NO
- Listed on the Arecibo Asteroid Radar Schedule:YES(Priority Level High)
- Radar Observations: none (yet)
- Discovery observation was made:2020 07 13.567919 by ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa(MPC Code T08)
- Last Observation(publish) was made:2020 07 19.607192 by ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala(MPC Code T05)
- Number of Optical Observations(published): 29
- Oppositions: 1
- Number of Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations :6
- Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations(MPC Code):
- (474) Mount John Observatory, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand.
- (E10) Siding Spring-Faulkes Telescope South, Australia/NSW.
- (T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala, US/Hawaii. Observer
- (T08) ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa,US/Hawaii. Observers
- (W88) Slooh.com Chile Observatory, La Dehesa,Chile.
- (Z84) Calar Alto-Schmidt, Spain.
- Perihelion Distance: 0.49 AU
- Aphelion Distance: 2.28 AU
- Earth MOID: 0.00278361 AU (1.083 Lunar Distance) 65.29 Earth radii
- Close-Approach to Earth: 2020-Jul-31 Minimum Distance 0.052769696480622 (AU) 20.536 Lunar Distance (LD)
- JPL Small-Body Database Browser (2020 NK1)
- Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring 2020 NK1 -- Earth Impact Risk Summary
- NEODyS-2 2020NK1
- Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini
- Arecibo Asteroid Radar Schedule
- MPC Observations Database 2020 NK1
- Torino Scale
- Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring Introduction
- Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale
- Quantifying the risk posed by potential Earth impacts Steven R. Chesley (JPL), Paul W. Chodas (JPL), Andrea Milani (Univ. Pisa), Giovanni B. Valsecchi Icarus 159, 423-432 (2002) (PDF)
Jun 14, 2020
2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240" Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"
2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240" Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"
This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid. Image: Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech |
Throughout the year, very small rocks strick the Earth's atmosphere and creating spectacular fireballs. Most of these rocks travel through space unknown to habitats of Earth until they strick the atmosphere. If we are lucky, the fireball will be seen and reported. If we are really lucky, the fireballs will be capture on film. The most vast majority of fireballs are of no danger what so ever. Most fireballs are like rainbows in that they are cool. Four times in the past, these rocks travel through the field of vision of an asteroid observer before impact. Observation was taken. The rocks were given designations, like 2014 AA( i.e., the first discovery of the first half of January in 2014), and the rocks "became" asteroids. These four asteroids were on the safe side when it comes to size.
In the first half of November 2018, an asteroid was discovered and give the designation 2018 VP1. This asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. This asteroid was only observed 21 times over 13 days.
In the first half of November 2018, an asteroid was discovered and give the designation 2018 VP1. This asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. This asteroid was only observed 21 times over 13 days.
In orbit determination, one calculation what orbit will place the object in the sky where it was seen. If one knows an object's orbit, it knows where it is going and where it will be in the sky. All observations are "imperfect," so there will be many similar orbits. If one were to create virtual asteroids for each of the similar orbits and did a simulation, one would see over time. The virtual asteroids move apart from each other to create an uncertainty region. The real asteroid is somewhere within the uncertainty region. When doing the simulation, if any of the virtual asteroids impact the Earth, they become virtual impactors, and there is 'Non-Zero' probability of the real asteroid hitting the Earth. By calculating the percentage of virtual impactors to virtual asteroids, one can calculate the risk of impact.
There is a very low-risk impact 2018 VP1 will on 2020-11-02. However, it must be restarted this asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. We have a fireball this size about two times a year.
There is a very low-risk impact 2018 VP1 will on 2020-11-02. However, it must be restarted this asteroid is very small[1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) ]. We have a fireball this size about two times a year.
Also see Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring
Find_orb computing Monte Carlo variant orbits for the NEO 2018 VP1. One can use Monte Carlo method to create virtual asteroids. By using orbits of the virtual asteroids one can can see where the "real" asteroid could go. If any of virtual asteroids impact the Earth they become known as virtual impactors and the is 'Non-Zero' probability of the real asteroid hitting the Earth |
@kpheider asked me to calculate a path of risk for #2018VP1. It's only a few meters across but JPL's SENTRY has it at 1 chance in 240 of impacting on Nov 2, 2020 (ESA/NEODys has it at 1 in 400). Path of risk stretches across the Pacific. Calculated with SOLEX 12.1 pic.twitter.com/U8SGb8CvOl— Peter Thomas (@ptastro1) July 26, 2019
Background
(as of 2020-06-13 )
- Object: 2018 VP1
- Orbit Type: NEO Apollo
- Approximate Diameter: 1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528 feet) (Absolute Magnitude: H=30.9)
- On the Sentry Risk Table: YES
- Impact Probability(2020-11-02.05) = 4.1e-3
- 0.41% chance of Earth impact
- 1 in 240 odds of impact
- 99.59% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth
- for more information read Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini
- On the NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page: YES
- (2020-11-02.051) 5.16e-3
- 0.516%
- 1 in 194
- 99.484% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth
- Possible Earth Impact Effects Program of 2018 VP1
- Listed on The Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS):NO
- Listed on the Goldstone Asteroid Radar Schedule:NO
- Listed on the Arecibo Asteroid Radar Schedule:NO
- Radar Observations:
- Discovery observation was made: 2018 11 03.27284202 5 (By Palomar Mountain--ZTF (MPC Code I41)[ First precovery observation was 2018 11 03.27249502]
- Last Observation(publish) was made: 2018 11 16.24026503 (By Cerro Paranal (MPC Code 309))
- Data-Arc Span (publish): 13 days ( yr)
- Number of Optical Observations(published): 21
- Oppositions: 1
- Number of Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations :5
- Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations(MPC Code):
- (309) Cerro Paranal, Chile.
- (H01) Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Socorro, US/New
- (I41) Palomar Mountain--ZTF, US/California.
- (L01) Višnjan Observatory, Tičan, Croatia.
- (T12) Mauna Kea-UH/Tholen NEO Follow-Up (2.24-m)
- Perihelion Distance: 0.9051326626577225 (AU)
- Aphelion Distance: 2.270308947523921 (AU)
- Earth MOID: 5.54556E-5 (AU), 0.022 (LD), 1.30069951121949 (Earth Radii), (Miles), or 8,296.04 5,154.92 (KM)
- Close-Approach to Earth: Will pass the Earth on 2020-Nov-02 11:33 at a Nominal Distance(Best Fit) of 0.00280167254552464 (AU), 1.09 (LD), 65.71 (Earth Radii), 260,431.733 (Miles), or 419,124.247(KM). "IF" the Earth was the Size of a Basketball flyby would be 25.53 feet ( 7.78 meters) away
- Close-Approach to Earth Uncertainty:
- Distance (Maximum Distance (au) - Minimum Distance (au)): 0.0256085074009903 - 3.90766585857012e-05 = 0.02556943074(AU) 9.951(LD) or 3,825,132.39 KM( 2,376,827.07 Miles)
- Time Uncertainty: (minutes) 4750.56847240545 ( 3 Days 7 Hours 11
Minutes) - Object velocity relative to Earth at close-approach [V-relative] (KM/S): 9.71114662839966
- Object velocity relative to a massless Earth at close-approach[V-infinity](KM/S):9.61271582257126
- Visibility:
- Naked Eye Visibility:NO
- Peak Magnitude: 17.1
- 2018 VP1 Ephemerides(Near Earth Objects Dynamic Site - NEODyS - SpaceDyS)
Mar 2, 2020
Tracking 2020 DR2 on 2020-03-02
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from Siding Spring Observatory Australia - MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 stacks of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD).
Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring( archive) http://archive.is/yjIZm
NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page ( archive) http://archive.ph/HVdHX
also see Jon Giorgini's "Understanding Risk Pages" http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/by/giorgjon.htm
The risk list object 2020 DR2 from Siding Spring Observatory Australia - MPC Q62 on 2020-03-01 a stack of 4 - 15 -second luminance BIN2 images taken with T17(0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD) By Steven M. Tilley |
Oct 28, 2019
The 2019 UB8 2019-10-29 Flyby! How Close? Is Close?
(2019 UB8) approximate (0.50 LD) flyby distance from Earth This image adapted by Steven M Tilley from the image the original Earth-Moon.png by Nickshanks under licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic license |
Tonight(2019-Oct-28/29) the NEO 2019 UB8 (4.4 m - 9.7 m) will do a flyby(A.K.A NEO Earth Close Approaches) of a Nominal Distance of 0.50 LD (0.00127 AU) ~191,000 KM (~ 119,000 miles). Sorting by nominal distance, this close approach is listed in the top 270 of 22,500+ entries in JPL's close approach database. (As of 2019-Oct-28) Flybys within one LD are quite common from what we "know" NEOs flybys within one LD a few times every week or so.
If the Earth was the size of a basketball how far would the Moon be? |
Close is a relative term. "Close" to a major sports venue is not the same as "close" to the ER. If one were to think of a basketball-size Earth, it may in understanding what is "close" and what is "far." In this, basketball-size Earth system, the ISS would be at ~0.76 CM (0.3 inches); we had NEO Flybys at 10.35 CM (4.1 inches) [ 2011 CQ1 on 2011-Feb-04] before. The Moon would range from ~673.41 CM (~22.0 Ft) to ~753.81 CM (~24.7 Ft). 2019 UB8 will be ~347.62 CM (~11.4 Ft) from the basketball. To see 2019 UB8 tonight, check out the Virtual Telescope Project.
Mar 17, 2019
The NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2 on on 2019-03-17
Image of the NEO(Aten) 2019 EA2 on 2019-03-17 from AstroCamp Observatory. Nerpio, Spain ( MPC I89) a stack of 20-60 Second Luminance BIN2 Images taken with iTelescope.net's (T07 TEL 0.43-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD) By Steven M. Tilley |
See :
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2019EA2
https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.0&n=2019EA2
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2019 EA2
http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/mn/19/19076_0317.htm
https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K19/K19F08.html
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/
Jan 14, 2019
Observing The NEO 2019 AG7 on 2019-01-13 from Siding Spring Australia
Orbit diagram 2019 AG7 Earth Distance: 0.014 AU Sun Distance: 0.988 AU courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech 2019-01-13 13:25 UTC https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2019AG7 |
Background
(as of 2019-01-13)
- Object:2019 AG7
- Orbit Type: Aten [NEO]
- Approximate Diameter: 23 m to 51 m (75.4593 feet to 167.323) (Absolute Magnitude: H= 25.32)
- On the Sentry Risk Table: Yes
- NOTE this is NOT a prediction of an impact but rather a statement there is insufficient observational data rule out an impact -- for more information read Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini
- "The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.."
- On the NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page: Yes
- First(Precovery) Observation was made: 2018 12 31.614374(By Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala, US/Hawaii. (MPC Code F51))
- Discovery observation was made:2019 01 09.37994 (By the Catalina Sky Survey, US/Arizona. (MPC Code 703)
- Last Observation(publish): 2019 01 12.582898 (By Mauna Kea-UH/Tholen NEO Follow-Up (2.24-m) (MPC Code T12)
- Data-Arc Span (publish): 12 days
- Number of Optical Observations(published):54
- Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations(MPC Code):
- (204) Schiaparelli Observatory,Italy.
- (291) LPL/Spacewatch II, US/Arizona.
- (474) Mount John Observatory, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand.
- (703) Catalina Sky Survey, US/Arizona.
- (807) Cerro Tololo Observatory, La Serena, Chile.
- (F51) Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala (N20.707235 W156.255910) US/Hawaii.
- (F65) Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North, US/Hawaii.
- (G40) Slooh.com Canary Islands Observatory, Canary Islands (Spain).
- (I52) Steward Observatory, Mt. Lemmon Station
- (J04) ESA Optical Ground Station, Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain).
- (J95) Great Shefford,UK.
- (L01) Višnjan Observatory, Tičan, Croatia.
- (T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala, US/Hawaii.
- (T12) Mauna Kea-UH/Tholen NEO Follow-Up (2.24-m), US/Hawaii.
- Perihelion Distance: 0.4829280277140071(AU)
- Aphelion Distance: 1.007267187900272(AU)
- Earth MOID: 0.00482722(AU), 1.879 (LD), 113.348270821(Earth Radii), 448,718.132 (Miles), or 722,141.833(KM)
- Close-Approach to Earth: Will safely pass Earth on 2019-Jan-15 at a Nominal Distance of 0.0100782635426263(AU), 3.922(LD), 236.648370166 (Earth Radii), 936,833.123(Miles), or 1,507,686.766(KM)
Oct 1, 2018
September 2018 In NEO News in Review
The Japanese Space Agency,JAXA, successfully landed two small robotic rovers on the asteroid Ryugu.
— HAYABUSA2@JAXA (@haya2e_jaxa) September 21, 2018
As Hayabusa2 descended towards Ryugu to deploy the MINERVA-II1 rovers, the ONC-T camera snapped the highest resolution image yet of the asteroid surface!https://t.co/JDbk29RXHG pic.twitter.com/KFsLet5BMJ— HAYABUSA2@JAXA (@haya2e_jaxa) September 28, 2018
— MASCOT Lander (@MASCOT2018) September 30, 2018
JPL Close Approach Data for September 2018 Distance Nominal < 1 Lunar Distance
Object | Close-Approach (CA) Date |
CA Distance Nominal
(LD | au) |
CA Distance Minimum
(LD | au) |
H (mag) | Estimated Diameter |
2018 SM | 2018-Sep-15 | 0.11 | 0.00028 | 0.11 | 0.00028 | 29.4 | 3.5 m - 7.9 m |
2018 RZ5 | 2018-Sep-12 | 0.13 | 0.00033 | 0.13 | 0.00033 | 29.7 | 3.1 m - 6.9 m |
2018 SD2 | 2018-Sep-25 | 0.23 | 0.00059 | 0.23 | 0.00058 | 28.6 | 5.0 m - 11 m |
2018 RS | 2018-Sep-05 | 0.28 | 0.00071 | 0.27 | 0.00071 | 29.5 | 3.4 m - 7.6 m |
2018 RJ3 | 2018-Sep-07 | 0.44 | 0.00112 | 0.43 | 0.00112 | 27.8 | 7.2 m - 16 m |
2018 RW | 2018-Sep-08 | 0.44 | 0.00114 | 0.44 | 0.00114 | 30.3 | 2.3 m - 5.2 m |
2018 RY5 | 2018-Sep-12 | 0.47 | 0.00120 | 0.47 | 0.00120 | 26.5 | 13 m - 30 m |
2018 RC | 2018-Sep-09 | 0.58 | 0.00150 | 0.58 | 0.00150 | 24.9 | 28 m - 63 m |
2018 SC | 2018-Sep-18 | 0.70 | 0.00179 | 0.70 | 0.00179 | 27.9 | 6.9 m - 16 m |
2018 RR1 | 2018-Sep-03 | 0.94 | 0.00243 | 0.94 | 0.00242 | 29.9 | 2.7 m - 6.1 m |
2018 RE2 | 2018-Sep-06 | 0.99 | 0.00255 | 0.99 | 0.00254 | 28.5 | 5.4 m - 12 m |
Objects removed from JPL's Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring page.
Object Designation | Removed (UTC) |
2018 RB7 | 9/29/2018 15:26 |
2018 RJ7 | 9/22/2018 16:11 |
2018 RP5 | 9/16/2018 15:06 |
2018 RQ1 | 9/16/2018 15:00 |
2018 RH3 | 9/15/2018 16:06 |
2018 RT3 | 9/15/2018 16:04 |
2018 RE5 | 9/14/2018 15:18 |
2018 PY7 | 9/12/2018 15:02 |
2018 RP | 9/09/2018 15:07 |
2018 MC7 | 9/07/2018 14:50 |
2018 RC | 9/06/2018 15:04 |
2018 QJ1 | 9/03/2018 14:43 |
Highlights of My Work for September 2018
Object I observed in September 2018
Designation | Classification | MPC Code | Telescope | Date of observations | Number of observations |
2046 | Main Belt | Q62 | T17 | 9/2/2018 | 3 |
61324 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
61324 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
61417 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
61417 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
71460 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
71460 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
73540 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
73540 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
80076 | Main Belt | H06 | T11 | 9/14/2018 | 3 |
83105 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
84966 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/8/2018 | 3 |
128837 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/8/2018 | 3 |
157941 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
173394 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
173394 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
197120 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
209101 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
231098 | Main Belt | Q62 | T17 | 9/2/2018 | 3 |
253061 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
331431 | Main Belt | Q62 | T31 | 9/8/2018 | 3 |
523788 | NEO(Apollo) | Q62 | T17 | 9/30/2018 | 3 |
1998 SD9 | NEO(Aten) | H06 | t11 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
2018 RB | NEO(Apollo, PHA) | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
2018 RB | NEO(Apollo, PHA) | Q62 | T31 | 9/1/2018 | 3 |
2018 RB | NEO(Apollo, PHA) | Q62 | T17 | 9/2/2018 | 3 |
2018 RP8 | NEO(Aten) | H06 | T21 | 9/17/2018 | 4 |
2018 RQ1 | NEO(Aten) | Q62 | T31 | 9/8/2018 | 3 |
2018 RQ1 | NEO(Aten) | Q62 | T30 | 9/9/2018 | 3 |
2018 RQ1 | NEO(Aten) | H06 | T11 | 9/10/2018 | 3 |
2018 RQ1 | NEO(Aten) | U69 | T24 | 9/10/2018 | 3 |
21P/Giacobini-Zinner | Comet | H06 | T11 | 9/14/2018 | 3 |
46P/Wirtanen | Comet | Q62 | T17 | 9/22/2018 | 4 |
Total | 101 |
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