On 2018-06-02 Richard A. Kowalski, with the
Catalina Sky Survey reported observations of a "new" object, given the observ3er-assigned temporary designation "ZLAF9B2", to
Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. It was posted to the
NEOCP(NEO Confirmation Page) making the observations available to asteroid and comet researcher around the world. The data was analyzed and posted
JPL's Scout: NEOCP Hazard Assessment, independently analyzed and posted to Bill Gray's
Current NEOCP summary page. Then emails to mailing list post to social madia started going out. It was know to be small at the start.
When wroke up on 2018-06-02 I check
iTelescope.net
and saw their facility in Siding Spring Observatory, AU was clouded
out than I went out to eat breakfast. When got back just to see what I
would observe if I could observe, I check the NEOCP and saw that ZLAF9B2 was "bright", and then
check "The Minor Planet Mailing List {MPML}" Some of the asteroid and
comet researchers where talking. The Bill Gray sent and a number of carefully worded emails to email list stating ZLAF9B2 should be a "Priority Target".
One of the programs available to asteroid and comet researchers is
Find_Orb
it is
useful for calculating approximate ephemeris, determining approximate
orbits, residuals, generating virtual asteroids, virtual impactors,
predicting impact locations, and many other things. It should be noted IF one uses wrong setting one get a totally wrong solution. One things Find_Orb can be use for is generating a "
asteroid risk corridor" with the help of
Guide 9.1. This should be done with care because of uncertainties in observations how one sets the over-observing parameters as well with other setting can the effect the results. Bill Gray posted post a
risk corridor for ZLAF9B2 and I thought I would give it a try. I had Find_Orb generated virtual asteroids and virtual impactors using a
monte carlo process.
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| Here is my TEST with Find_Orb using a monte carlo process see the files here |
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| Here is my TEST with Find_Orb using a monte carlo process see the files here |
Before I share my results ZLAF9B2(now 2018 LA)
"impacted" the Earth over southern Africa creating a Fireball. around 2018-06-02 16:45 UT and posts about impact started making. After the impact two (pre-impact) follow up observations from
ATLAS-MLO(Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System ---Mauna Loa) were posted to the
NEOCP(NEO Confirmation Page) Then I did another
monte carlo process with the newly added ATLAS observations.
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Test with the newly added ATLAS observations with Find_Orb
using a monte carlo process see the files here |
On 2018-06-04 the Minor Planet Center issues
MPEC 2018-L04 : 2018 LA Stating
"that the objectreached 50-km height above the Earth's surface around 16:51 UTC over southern
Africa."
Timeline of SOME of the Post to Social Media
