On 2018-06-02 Richard A. Kowalski, with the Catalina Sky Survey reported observations of a "new" object, given the observ3er-assigned temporary designation "ZLAF9B2", to Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. It was posted to the NEOCP(NEO Confirmation Page) making the observations available to asteroid and comet researcher around the world. The data was analyzed and posted JPL's Scout: NEOCP Hazard Assessment, independently analyzed and posted to Bill Gray's Current NEOCP summary page. Then emails to mailing list post to social madia started going out. It was know to be small at the start.
When wroke up on 2018-06-02 I check iTelescope.net and saw their facility in Siding Spring Observatory, AU was clouded out than I went out to eat breakfast. When got back just to see what I would observe if I could observe, I check the NEOCP and saw that ZLAF9B2 was "bright", and then check "The Minor Planet Mailing List {MPML}" Some of the asteroid and comet researchers where talking. The Bill Gray sent and a number of carefully worded emails to email list stating ZLAF9B2 should be a "Priority Target".
When wroke up on 2018-06-02 I check iTelescope.net and saw their facility in Siding Spring Observatory, AU was clouded out than I went out to eat breakfast. When got back just to see what I would observe if I could observe, I check the NEOCP and saw that ZLAF9B2 was "bright", and then check "The Minor Planet Mailing List {MPML}" Some of the asteroid and comet researchers where talking. The Bill Gray sent and a number of carefully worded emails to email list stating ZLAF9B2 should be a "Priority Target".
One of the programs available to asteroid and comet researchers is Find_Orb
it is useful for calculating approximate ephemeris, determining approximate
orbits, residuals, generating virtual asteroids, virtual impactors, predicting impact locations, and many other things. It should be noted IF one uses wrong setting one get a totally wrong solution. One things Find_Orb can be use for is generating a "asteroid risk corridor" with the help of Guide 9.1. This should be done with care because of uncertainties in observations how one sets the over-observing parameters as well with other setting can the effect the results. Bill Gray posted post a risk corridor for ZLAF9B2 and I thought I would give it a try. I had Find_Orb generated virtual asteroids and virtual impactors using a monte carlo process.
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| Here is my TEST with Find_Orb using a monte carlo process see the files here |
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| Here is my TEST with Find_Orb using a monte carlo process see the files here |
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| Test with the newly added ATLAS observations with Find_Orb using a monte carlo process see the files here |
"that the objectreached 50-km height above the Earth's surface around 16:51 UTC over southern Africa."
Timeline of SOME of the Post to Social Media
{MPML} ZLAF9B2 = priority target (from Bill Gray):— Asteroid Initiatives (@AsteroidEnergy) June 2, 2018
Based on eleven observations from Catalina, this is
looking to be coming quite close, probably about 50000
km or so. It's mag 17.2 and getting brighter, too, so it shouldn't be
too tough to get.
A tiny (3-metre?) asteroid, ZLAF9B2, making a close approach to Earth within twice GEO distance, perhaps much closer. Some solutions by Bill Gray suggest possible impact over Indonesia around now - look out for fireball reports! Not big enough to be a worry.— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) June 2, 2018
It looks like there is a good probability the newly discovered small object ZLAF9B2 will impact the Earth's atmosphere within the next few hours. (Plot from MPML and Peter Birtwhistle) https://t.co/As7RgDseLA— Asteroid Initiatives (@AsteroidEnergy) June 2, 2018
It looks like there is a good probability ZLAF9B2 will impact the Earth within the next few hours. (Plot from MPML and Peter Birtwhistle) https://t.co/As7RgDseLA pic.twitter.com/XKktXbLNFn— Asteroid Initiatives (@AsteroidEnergy) June 2, 2018
ZLAF9B2 is very close.— Neil Norman FRAS. (@telescopecomet1) June 2, 2018
and then there's ZLAF9B2 https://t.co/YXiBEdQqqC— Asteroid Initiatives (@AsteroidEnergy) June 2, 2018
Update of the possible times of impact (UTC) for ZLAF9B2 from Bill Gray. pic.twitter.com/TEp9oF4Dcw— Asteroid Initiatives (@AsteroidEnergy) June 2, 2018
Analysis on the Minor Planet Mailing List suggests that the ZLAF9B2 object reentered and burnt up over Botswana at 1644UTC— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) June 2, 2018
Newly-disovered asteroid #ZLAF9B2 likely hit the Earth a few hours ago.https://t.co/fwx3eAVMX7 pic.twitter.com/C3rBgE07js— Tony Dunn (@tony873004) June 3, 2018
Strong infrasound detection of a bolide at station I47 in South Africa today at 1730 UT. Origin time between 1645-17 UT over Botswana. Yield 0.3-0.5 kT, corresponding to 2m diameter asteroid. #fireball #neoimpacts pic.twitter.com/fVe5GtwTtb— Peter Brown (@pgbrown) June 3, 2018
Yes, this was ZLAF9B2. I obviously left Germany too early— Peter Brown (@pgbrown) June 3, 2018
My Test with with Find_Orb and Guide 9--14 observations; 2018 June 2 (3.8 hr) (including newly added ATLAS observations) Monte Carlo noise set to 2 and Physical set to Standard #ZLAF9B2 pic.twitter.com/QqBBzXsOB2— Steven M. Tilley (@StevearenoBR) June 3, 2018
Just for fun, here’s my estimated fireball track from the Deelpan video alongside the @StevearenoBR candidate line. 800km is a surprise (I guessed 400km) but it’s calculated correctly if 50km altitude burst & it’s a v bright fireball. Atmospheric speed from @tony873004. #ZLAF9B2 pic.twitter.com/b9DWcezuST— Andy Cooper (@scute1133) June 3, 2018
{MPML} The object ZLAF9B2 is (given that it exploded in the air over Botswana yesterday) "posthumously" going to be named 2018 LA. https://t.co/JxTT8jwSGX— Asteroid Initiatives (@AsteroidEnergy) June 3, 2018
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