What is Up With Asteroid 2018 SV13

Here a write up "What is Up With Asteroid 2018 SV13" Is asteroid 2018 SV13 real? NO

The NEO 2020 NK1 On 2020-07-21 From Siding Spring Observatory Australia.

The NEO 2020 NK1 Has Been Rated Torino Impact Hazard Scale 1 this happens a few times a year. The current The NEO 2020 NK1 Has Been Rated Torino Impact Hazard Scale 1 this happens a few times a year. The current Torino Scale state for 1 " A routine discovery in which a pass near Earth is predicted, that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to reassignment to Level 0."  I in order to help lower uncertainty I did an imaging run with itelescope.net's T30 in itelescope.net

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The NEO 2020 NK1 on 2020-07-21 from Siding Spring Observatory Australia - MPC Q62 using  T30 (0.50-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD) a stack of 15 - 20 second luminance BIN2 images . By Steven M. Tilley

The NEO 2020 NK1 on 2020-07-21from Siding Spring Observatory Australia - MPC Q62 using T30 (0.50-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD) a stack of 15 - 20 second luminance BIN2 images . By Steven M. Tilley

The NEO 2020 NK1 on 2020-07-21 from Siding Spring Observatory Australia - MPC Q62 using T30 (0.50-m f/6.8 reflector + CCD) a stack of 15 - 20 second luminance BIN2 images . By Steven M. Tilley

Perihelion 2020 Sep 21.088437 +/- 0.0701 TT =  2:07:21 (JD 2459113.588437)
Epoch 2020 Jul 21.0 TT = JDT 2459051.5   Earth MOID: 0.0027   Ve: 0.0539
M 322.85838324 +/- 0.24            (J2000 ecliptic)          Find_Orb
n   0.59820505 +/- 0.00329          Peri.  107.84849 +/- 0.10
a   1.39498433 +/- 0.00511          Node   311.10569 +/- 0.006
e   0.6474844 +/- 0.0012              Incl.   45.46161 +/- 0.08
P   1.65/601.79d           H 19.0   G  0.15   U  8.9 
q 0.49175368 +/- 0.000137    Q 2.29821498 +/- 0.0103
From 41 observations 2020 July 13-21; mean residual 0".18

Background

(as of 2020-07-21 ) 

(Check links for Updates)

• Object: 2020 NK1
• Orbit Type: Apollo [NEO, PHA]
• Approximate Diameter: 420 m - 940 m (1377.95 to 3083.99 Feet)  (Absolute H= 19.0 )
• On the Sentry Risk Table:  YES [8 Number of Potential Impacts  2090-2101]
• for more information read Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini 
• On the NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page: YES[22 Number of Potential Impacts  2086-2102] 
• Listed on The Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS):NO 
• Listed on the Goldstone Asteroid Radar Schedule:NO
• Listed on the Arecibo Asteroid Radar Schedule:YES(Priority Level High)
• Radar Observations: none (yet)
• Discovery observation was made:2020 07 13.567919 by ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa(MPC Code T08)
• Last Observation(publish) was made:2020 07 21.18925000
  ESA Optical Ground Station, Tenerife (MPC Code J04)
• Number of Optical Observations(published): 38
• Oppositions: 1 
• Number of Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations :8
• Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations(MPC Code):

• (474) Mount John Observatory, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand.
• (E10) Siding Spring-Faulkes Telescope South, Australia/NSW.
• (J04) ESA Optical Ground Station, Tenerife , Canary   Islands (Spain).
• (Q59) Siding Spring-LCO Clamshell {#}2  Australia/NSW.
• (T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala, US/Hawaii.  Observer
• (T08) ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa,US/Hawaii.  Observers
• (W88) Slooh.com Chile Observatory, La Dehesa,Chile.
• (Z84) Calar Alto-Schmidt, Spain. 

• Perihelion Distance: 0.49 AU
• Aphelion Distance: 2.28 AU
• Earth MOID: 0.00275208 AU (1.071 Lunar Distance) 64.55 Earth radii
• Close-Approach to Earth:  2020-Jul-31 Minimum Distance  0.0544283775663102(AU) 21.182 Lunar Distance (LD)

Also see:

• JPL Small-Body Database Browser (2020 NK1)
• Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring 2020 NK1 -- Earth Impact Risk Summary   
• NEODyS-2 2020NK1 
• Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini 
• Arecibo Asteroid Radar Schedule
•  MPC  Observations Database 2020 NK1 
• Torino Scale  
• Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring Introduction 
• Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale 
• The Tracking News - Earth's Busy Neighborhood , 2020-07-21,  2020-07-20, 2020-07-19, 2020-07-18  , Consolidated Risk Tables
• Quantifying the risk posed by potential Earth impacts Steven R. Chesley (JPL), Paul W. Chodas (JPL), Andrea Milani (Univ. Pisa), Giovanni B. Valsecchi  Icarus 159, 423-432 (2002) (PDF)

 

The NEO 2020 NK1 Has Been Rated Torino Impact Hazard Scale 1 -- Normal (Green Zone)

The NEO 2020 NK1 Has Been Rated Torino Impact Hazard Scale 1 this happens a few times a year. The current Torino Scale state for 1 " A routine discovery in which a pass near Earth is predicted, that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to reassignment to Level 0."  2020 NK1 just need more observations.

Artist's concept of a near-Earth object. Image: Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech

Perihelion 2020 Sep 21.139924 +/- 0.224 TT =  3:21:29 (JD 2459113.639924)
Epoch 2020 Jul 17.0 TT = JDT 2459047.5   Earth MOID: 0.0027   Ve: 0.0545
M 320.28294890 +/- 0.8              (J2000 ecliptic)          Find_Orb
n   0.60050040 +/- 0.0106           Peri.  107.92176 +/- 0.35
a   1.39142727 +/- 0.0164           Node   311.10237 +/- 0.024
e   0.6466292 +/- 0.00384           Incl.   45.40097 +/- 0.25
P   1.64/599.49d           H 19.0   G  0.15   U  9.7
q 0.49168968 +/- 0.000482    Q 2.29116486 +/- 0.0332
From 29 observations 2020 July 13-19; mean residual 0".18

Background

(as of 2020-07-20 ) 

(Check links for Updates)

• Object: 2020 NK1
• Orbit Type: Apollo [NEO, PHA]
• Approximate Diameter: 420 m - 940 m (1377.95 to 3083.99 Feet)  (Absolute H= 19.0 )
• On the Sentry Risk Table:  YES [26 Number of Potential Impacts  2084-2106]
• for more information read Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini 
• On the NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page: YES[46 Number of Potential Impacts  2080-2103] 
• Listed on The Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS):NO 
• Listed on the Goldstone Asteroid Radar Schedule:NO
• Listed on the Arecibo Asteroid Radar Schedule:YES(Priority Level High)
• Radar Observations: none (yet)
• Discovery observation was made:2020 07 13.567919 by ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa(MPC Code T08)
• Last Observation(publish) was made:2020 07 19.607192 by ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala(MPC Code T05)
• Number of Optical Observations(published): 29
• Oppositions: 1 
• Number of Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations :6
• Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations(MPC Code):

• (474) Mount John Observatory, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand.
• (E10) Siding Spring-Faulkes Telescope South, Australia/NSW.
• (T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala, US/Hawaii.  Observer
• (T08) ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa,US/Hawaii.  Observers
• (W88) Slooh.com Chile Observatory, La Dehesa,Chile.
• (Z84) Calar Alto-Schmidt, Spain. 

• Perihelion Distance: 0.49 AU
• Aphelion Distance: 2.28 AU
• Earth MOID: 0.00278361 AU (1.083 Lunar Distance) 65.29 Earth radii
• Close-Approach to Earth:  2020-Jul-31 Minimum Distance  0.052769696480622 (AU) 20.536 Lunar Distance (LD)

Also see:

• JPL Small-Body Database Browser (2020 NK1)
• Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring 2020 NK1 -- Earth Impact Risk Summary   
• NEODyS-2 2020NK1 
• Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini 
• Arecibo Asteroid Radar Schedule
•  MPC  Observations Database 2020 NK1 
• Torino Scale  
• Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring Introduction 
• Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale 
• Quantifying the risk posed by potential Earth impacts Steven R. Chesley (JPL), Paul W. Chodas (JPL), Andrea Milani (Univ. Pisa), Giovanni B. Valsecchi  Icarus 159, 423-432 (2002) (PDF)

 

2018 SV13... "the object is not real"

There has been some media hub ba over 2018 SV13 Update on 2020 July 17 at 14:31 UT the Minor Planet Center Issued "MPEC 2020-O10 : RETRACTION OF 2018 SV13" .. 2018 SV13 " … the object is not real..." see https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K20/K20O10.html

 Image edited by Steven M. Tilley  see the original (public domain) image Planetoid crashing into primordial Earth  at  Donald Davis' official site

How to see Comet NEOWISE

How to see Comet NEOWISE

0:00 / 4:08 Using Find orb and Guide9 To find the impact location of The NEO 2008 TC

Using Find_orb and Guide9 To find the impact location of The NEO 2008 TC3. Credits The Observations of 2008 TC3 was obtained from the The Minor Planet Center (MPC) https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?utf8=%E2%9C%93&object_id=2008+TC3 The data was examine with Find_Orb Orbit determination software - Project Pluto http://www.projectpluto.com/find_orb.htm Text editing done with MS Notepad The impact.tdf graphic was done with MS Paint. The Map was done with Guide9 https://www.projectpluto.com/guide9b.htm 2008TC3-groundpath-rev Wikimedia Commons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_TC3#/media/File:2008TC3-groundpath-rev.png Music Way Out West by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) Artist: http://www.twinmusicom.org Created using Pinnacle Studio Steven M. Tilley http://lagniappeobserving.com A Link to the files MPCOrb.dat, state.txt, and virtual.txt https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/15P5YnrNr-BfhlFHWtoDtwV9xaITauqci?usp=sharing

A Test of Find_orb and Guide9 with 2014 AA observations

A Test of Find_orb and Guide9 with 2014 AA observations

A Foofaraw Over a NEO Designated 2018 VP1

Artist's concept of a near-Earth object. Image: Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech

Commentary 

Over the years, the tabloids as shown a propensity for raising a foofaraw over Near-Earth Objects. The Close-Approach of 2018 VP1 is only about four months away, and an internet search will reveal several clickbait stories. Many times it appears that tabloid writers pick a random asteroid and writes a "story" about it. At times one must have some background or do some research to see what the more accurate story is.

There is a low probability, 1 in 240, that the two-meter 2018 VP1 will strike the Earth's atmosphere and create spectacular fireballs on 2020-11-02. A test with the Imperial College London's Earth Impact Effects Program reports, "The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 0.2 years". In other words, it would be safe to assume objects the size of 2018 VP1 has impacted Earth's atmosphere since 2018-Nov-03, the date of discovery. The Earth Impact Effects Program also suggests that the fireball is unlikely to do any significant damage. NASA JPL list kinetic energy at impact from 2018 VP1[IF ANY] as ~ 0.00042 MegaTons of TNT. The Chelyabinsk event was 0.4 to 0.5 MegaTons of TNT.

Four times in the past, NEOs were observed by observers of asteroids before impact. These four asteroids(2008 TC3,2014 AA, 2018 LA, and 2019 MO) all were on the safe side when it comes to size.

Object	Date of discovery	Date of Impact	Size(M)
2008 TC3	2008-10-06	2008-10-07	4.1
2014 AA	2014-01-01	2014-01-02	2–4
2018 LA	2018-06-02	2018-06-02	2.6–3.8
2019 MO	2019-06-22	2019-06-22	3–10

One of the programs available to the amateur observers of asteroids and comets is Find_Orb.[By Bill Gray] It is useful for calculating approximate ephemeris, determining approximate orbits, generating virtual asteroids, virtual impactors, predicting impact locations, and many other things. It should be noted IF one uses the wrong setting, one gets an incorrect solution. Find_Orb can generate an "asteroid risk corridor" with the help of Guide 9.1.[By Bill Gray]

Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits  for the NEO 2018 VP1. One can use Monte Carlo method to  create virtual asteroids. By using orbits of  the virtual asteroids one can can see where the "real" asteroid could go. If any of virtual asteroids impact the Earth they become  known as  virtual impactors and the is 'Non-Zero' probability of  the real  asteroid hitting the Earth 

My Find_orb Setting

Selecting perturbers	All
Epoch	2020-11-01.051
Monte Carlo noise	2
Physical model Include	SRP
Filler out	3 worst observations

As a test of concept, I obtained the observations of 2018 VP1 for the Minor Planet Center. I loaded the observations into Find_Orb and had it run the Monte Carlo method all night. Find_orb generated the following files MPCOrb.dat, state.txt, and  virtual.txt. These files had orbits for 129,659 virtual asteroids 200 were virtual impactors( about 0.15%). I place a copy of the virtual.txt file in the Guide directory along with a copy of impact.tdf.(Project Pluto) Then Guide could generate a map of an asteroid risk corridor.

An asteroid (fireball) risk corridor of potential impact for the NEO 2018 VP1, the orange dots is where 200 virtual impactors strike the Earth's atmosphere.

Note: Because there were more than 9 observations, I had to edited virtual.txt to do a workaround. I replace "18 of 21" with "U of O" see edited virtual.txt; this keeps the columns in the right place. I also edited impact.tdf(My) file where I can have more than one risk corridor.

Another program is Solex & Exorb

Peter Thomas @ptastro1 also  this path of risk for 2018 VP1 on Twitter

@kpheider asked me to calculate a path of risk for #2018VP1. It's only a few meters across but JPL's SENTRY has it at 1 chance in 240 of impacting on Nov 2, 2020 (ESA/NEODys has it at 1 in 400). Path of risk stretches across the Pacific. Calculated with SOLEX 12.1 pic.twitter.com/U8SGb8CvOl

— Peter Thomas (@ptastro1) July 26, 2019

Background

(as of 2020-06-13 )

• Object: 2018 VP1
• Orbit Type: NEO Apollo
• Approximate Diameter: 1.8  m - 3.9 m  ( 5.90551  to  12.79528 feet) (Absolute Magnitude: H=30.9)
• On the Sentry Risk Table:  YES 
• Impact Probability(2020-11-02.05) = 4.1e-3
• 0.41% chance of Earth impact
• 1 in 240 odds of impact
• 99.59% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth
•  for more information read Understanding Risk Pages by Jon Giorgini
• On the NEODyS CLOMON2 risk page: YES
• (2020-11-02.051) 5.16e-3
• 0.516%
• 1 in 194
• 99.484% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth
• Possible Earth Impact Effects Program of 2018 VP1
• Listed on The Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS):NO
• Listed on the Goldstone Asteroid Radar Schedule:NO
• Listed on the Arecibo Asteroid Radar Schedule:NO
• Radar Observations: none
• Discovery observation was made: 2018 11 03.27284202 5 (By  Palomar Mountain--ZTF (MPC Code I41)[ First precovery observation was 2018 11 03.27249502]
• Last Observation(publish) was made: 2018 11 16.24026503  (By Cerro Paranal (MPC Code 309))
• Data-Arc Span (publish): 13   days ( yr)
• Number of Optical Observations(published): 21
• Oppositions: 1
• Number of Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations :5
• Observatories Reporting (Published) Observations(MPC Code):
• (309) Cerro Paranal, Chile.
• (H01) Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Socorro, US/New
• (I41) Palomar Mountain--ZTF, US/California.
• (L01) Višnjan Observatory, Tičan, Croatia.
• (T12) Mauna Kea-UH/Tholen NEO Follow-Up (2.24-m) 
• Perihelion Distance: 0.9051326626577225   (AU)
• Aphelion Distance: 2.270308947523921 (AU)
• Earth MOID: 5.54556E-5  (AU), 0.022 (LD), 1.30069951121949  (Earth Radii), (Miles), or  8,296.04 5,154.92 (KM)
• Close-Approach to Earth: Will pass the Earth on 2020-Nov-02 11:33  at a Nominal Distance(Best Fit) of  0.00280167254552464  (AU),  1.09 (LD), 65.71 (Earth Radii),  260,431.733 (Miles), or 419,124.247(KM). "IF" the Earth was the Size of a Basketball flyby would be  25.53 feet (  7.78 meters) away
• Close-Approach to Earth Uncertainty: 
• Distance (Maximum Distance (au) - Minimum Distance (au)):  0.0256085074009903 - 3.90766585857012e-05  = 0.02556943074(AU)  9.951(LD) or  3,825,132.39 KM( 2,376,827.07 Miles)
• Time Uncertainty: (minutes) 4750.56847240545 ( 3 Days  7 Hours  11
  Minutes)
• Object velocity relative to Earth at close-approach [V-relative] (KM/S): 9.71114662839966
• Object velocity relative to a massless Earth at close-approach[V-infinity](KM/S):9.61271582257126
• Visibility: 
• Naked Eye Visibility:NO
• Peak Magnitude:  17.1
  
•  2018 VP1 Ephemerides(Near Earth Objects Dynamic Site - NEODyS - SpaceDyS)

 

Also see

 

VI VA table 2018 VP Find_orb_SRP 18 of 21 Epock 2020-11-01_051.xslx 

Note this has been edit to fix links and know typos.